Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Updated: Thu Oct 12 21:21:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Oct 12, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Oct 14, 2017 - Sun, Oct 15, 2017 D6Tue, Oct 17, 2017 - Wed, Oct 18, 2017
D4Sun, Oct 15, 2017 - Mon, Oct 16, 2017 D7Wed, Oct 18, 2017 - Thu, Oct 19, 2017
D5Mon, Oct 16, 2017 - Tue, Oct 17, 2017 D8Thu, Oct 19, 2017 - Fri, Oct 20, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 122119

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0419 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 201200Z

   The dominant synoptic feature for fire weather concerns will be a
   broad surface anticyclone centered over the Great Basin early in the
   period.  This high, along with an attendant strong surface pressure
   gradient, will foster areas of gusty offshore flow in portions of
   southern and central California along with continued warm and dry
   surface conditions each afternoon.  After about D5/Mon, models
   suggest that the surface pressure gradient will weaken some as the
   anticyclone migrates eastward toward the southern Plains and an
   active jet stream approaches the West Coast.  Although models vary
   with regard to magnitude of mid/upper troughing in the eastern
   Pacific and adjacent northwestern CONUS, the overall synoptic
   pattern appears to favor areas of onshore flow along with increasing
   rainfall potential and a lessened fire weather threat after D6/Tue.

   ...D3/Sat and D4/Sun - Southern California Coastal Ranges...
   The aforementioned pressure gradient across the region will continue
   to foster localized areas of gusty east/northeasterly surface winds
   - especially in terrain-favored areas.  Warm surface temperatures
   (in the 70s and 80s F), low RH values, and areas of dry fuels will
   favor fire spread across the region, and both deterministic and
   probabilistic guidance suggests potential for surface winds
   approaching critical thresholds - especially on Sunday when the
   surface pressure gradient is strongest.  Elevated/40% probabilities
   are in place for this fire weather scenario, and 70% probabilities
   and/or critical fire weather highlights may be needed once greater
   certainty of 20+ mph surface winds is achieved.

   ...D3/Sat - Northern and central California...
   A dry airmass will continue to remain in place across the region as
   10-20 mph northerly surface flow continues throughout the day and
   into the overnight period.  Fuels will remain critically dry and
   continue to support ongoing, high-impact fire activity across the
   region.  40% probabilities are continued in this forecast with the
   expectation that localized areas across the region will experience
   25+ mph surface wind gusts for brief periods of time.  If winds end
   up stronger than currently forecast, higher probabilities and/or
   critical highlights may be needed.

   ...D4/Sun onward - Northern and central California...
   Models suggest that surface winds will slacken some from D4/Sun
   onward, although a continued dry airmass will remain in place
   through at least D6/Tue.  With minimal rainfall expected during that
   time frame, a critical burn environment will likely continue along
   with locally elevated fire weather conditions.  This region will be
   monitored for any potential increase in surface winds, which may
   necessitate an introduction of probabilities in later forecasts.

   ..Cook.. 10/12/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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