Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Updated: Sat Nov 4 19:56:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 4, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Nov 06, 2017 - Tue, Nov 07, 2017 D6Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017
D4Tue, Nov 07, 2017 - Wed, Nov 08, 2017 D7Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017
D5Wed, Nov 08, 2017 - Thu, Nov 09, 2017 D8Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 041954

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0254 PM CDT Sat Nov 04 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   A brief elevated fire weather threat will exist on Day 3/Mon across
   parts of the southern High Plains of New Mexico. A split flow upper
   level regime will exist during this time with strong deep layer
   westerly flow in the southern branch overspreading the Four Corners
   to the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a weak lee low will
   develop over northeast NM and breezy and dry downslope winds will be
   possible. 

   Beyond Day 3/Mon, fire weather conditions are not anticipated and a
   more progressive upper level regime will develop. On Days
   4/5-Tue/Wed, an upper shortwave trough will develop southeast from
   the northern Rockies into the central/southern Plains. As this
   occurs, a surface cold front will drop south/southeast across the
   Plains resulting in areas of precipitation, and strong surface high
   pressure building behind the front. A brief period of upper ridging
   across the Plains is forecast on Day 6/Thu before another trough
   develops over the western U.S. and tracks east into the Plains and
   central U.S. on Days 7/8-Fri/Sat.

   ..Leitman.. 11/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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