Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Updated: Tue Nov 7 19:50:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 7, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Nov 09, 2017 - Fri, Nov 10, 2017 D6Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017
D4Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017 D7Mon, Nov 13, 2017 - Tue, Nov 14, 2017
D5Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017 D8Tue, Nov 14, 2017 - Wed, Nov 15, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 071948

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0148 PM CST Tue Nov 07 2017

   Valid 091200Z - 151200Z

   A progressive upper pattern will likely continue through the
   extended forecast period as multiple upper troughs of varying
   amplitudes traverse across the CONUS. Several surface cold frontal
   intrusions should occur with these upper trough passages, and
   generally cool temperatures should remain prominent across much of
   the CONUS east of the Rockies.

   Overall, the prospect for critical fire weather conditions appears
   low through early next week, with two possible exceptions. Downslope
   westerly low-level winds associated with shortwave trough passages
   may locally reduce RH values across parts of the southern/central
   High Plains on Day 5/Saturday and Day 8/Tuesday. Model differences
   in the strength of low-level winds and related degree of drying,
   along with questionable fuel receptiveness, lower confidence in
   critical fire weather conditions occurring on either day. Therefore,
   no probabilities have been introduced at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 11/07/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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