Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Updated: Wed Nov 8 19:54:05 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 8, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 10, 2017 - Sat, Nov 11, 2017 D6Mon, Nov 13, 2017 - Tue, Nov 14, 2017
D4Sat, Nov 11, 2017 - Sun, Nov 12, 2017 D7Tue, Nov 14, 2017 - Wed, Nov 15, 2017
D5Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017 D8Wed, Nov 15, 2017 - Thu, Nov 16, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 081952

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 PM CST Wed Nov 08 2017

   Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

   A progressive upper pattern is expected to continue through the
   extended forecast period as multiple upper troughs of varying
   amplitudes traverse across the CONUS. Several surface cold frontal
   intrusions will likely occur with these upper trough passages, and
   generally cool temperatures should remain prominent across much of
   the CONUS east of the Rockies.

   Overall, the potential for critical fire weather conditions appears
   low through the middle of next week, with two possible exceptions.
   Downslope westerly low-level winds associated with shortwave trough
   passages may reduce RH values across parts of the southern/central
   High Plains on Day 4/Saturday and Day 7/Tuesday. Model differences
   remain concerning the strength of low-level winds and related degree
   of drying. Along with questionable fuel receptiveness, these
   marginal forecast meteorological conditions result in limited
   confidence in critical fire weather conditions occurring on either
   day. Therefore, no probabilities have been introduced at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 11/08/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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