Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Updated: Fri Nov 10 19:19:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 10, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Nov 12, 2017 - Mon, Nov 13, 2017 D6Wed, Nov 15, 2017 - Thu, Nov 16, 2017
D4Mon, Nov 13, 2017 - Tue, Nov 14, 2017 D7Thu, Nov 16, 2017 - Fri, Nov 17, 2017
D5Tue, Nov 14, 2017 - Wed, Nov 15, 2017 D8Fri, Nov 17, 2017 - Sat, Nov 18, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 101917

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0117 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   A progressive mid/upper synoptic pattern will persist across the
   CONUS through at least D6/Wed.  During this timeframe, occasional
   frontal intrusions across the central and eastern part of the
   country will aid in spreading a seasonably cool airmass across most
   areas of the country.  Fire weather concerns are expected to be
   minimal during that time period, although locally elevated
   conditions may develop in eastern New Mexico around D5/Tue afternoon
   as downslope flow increases amidst modestly low minimum RH values. 
   Concerns regarding fuel receptiveness and marginal fire weather
   conditions preclude highlights at this time.

   Beyond D6/Wed, models diverge substantially with regard to a
   larger-scale trough entering the West and resultant surface fields. 
   Although some fire weather concerns may exist in the High Plains
   around the D7/Thu time frame, considerable uncertainty exists.  This
   region will be monitored in later outlooks.

   ..Cook.. 11/10/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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