Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Updated: Tue Nov 14 20:41:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Nov 14, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Nov 16, 2017 - Fri, Nov 17, 2017 D6Sun, Nov 19, 2017 - Mon, Nov 20, 2017
D4Fri, Nov 17, 2017 - Sat, Nov 18, 2017 D7Mon, Nov 20, 2017 - Tue, Nov 21, 2017
D5Sat, Nov 18, 2017 - Sun, Nov 19, 2017 D8Tue, Nov 21, 2017 - Wed, Nov 22, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 142039

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0239 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

   Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

   Models have come into somewhat greater agreement in depicting a
   progressive longwave trough to migrate eastward from the Pacific
   Northwest (around D3/Thu) into the central Plains through D5/Sat. 
   Strengthening mid-level flow in advance of the wave will foster lee
   troughing/surface cyclogenesis across Kansas/southern Nebraska,
   while promoting development of an expansive dry sector across the
   southern and central High Plains.  Elevated (to perhaps locally
   critical) fire weather conditions will result - especially on
   D4/Fri.

   Models diverge regarding the large-scale pattern after this time
   period, although it appears that a surface ridge in the Great Basin
   will foster development of an offshore pressure gradient in southern
   California around D6/Sun.  Uncertainty is relatively high, although
   this fire weather scenario may eventually require low probabilities
   in later outlooks.

   ...D3/Thu and D4/Fri - Central and southern High Plains...
   A fairly localized area of elevated (and perhaps locally critical)
   fire weather conditions will develop across northeastern New Mexico
   and vicinity D3/Thu afternoon as dry, breezy conditions develop west
   of a north-to-south oriented surface trough.  

   On D4/Fri afternoon, a broader area of gusty winds and near-critical
   minimum RH values will develop in response to strengthening surface
   pressure gradient across the region.  Models have trended much
   slower with a cold front expected to migrate southward across
   Colorado/Kansas during the evening - and probabilities have been
   adjusted northward across those areas in response to greater
   residence time of warm, dry conditions in those areas.  Fuels are
   currently unfavorable for a widespread fire weather threat at this
   time, but should become favorable over time as dry antecedent
   conditions are expected.

   ..Cook.. 11/14/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT