Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Updated: Fri Dec 1 21:49:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 1, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 5,926 15,086,091 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...
D5 12,591 19,891,713 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D6 12,591 19,891,713 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D3Sun, Dec 03, 2017 - Mon, Dec 04, 2017 D6Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017
D4Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 D7Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017
D5Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 D8Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012147

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2017

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   ...Days 3-4/Sun-Mon -- Central/Southern High Plains...

   Deep layer southwesterly flow will strengthen across the region
   ahead of a deepening large-scale trough over the western states. The
   trough will shift east into the Plains on Monday and Tuesday. At the
   surface, low pressure will develop over the central High Plains and
   track east/northeast toward the upper Great Lakes by Tuesday
   morning. Breezy and dry downslope winds will be possible across
   parts of eastern NM, southeast CO, western KS, the OK/TX Panhandles
   into western OK on Sunday as the low strengthens and a tightening
   pressure gradient aids in increasing surface wind speeds. RH values
   are not expected to fall below about 20-25 percent, precluding the
   need for probs at this time. Sunday night into Monday, a cold front
   will sweep south/southeast across the central and southern Plains.
   West/southwest winds will become northerly and be quite gusty. Drier
   air will filter in behind the cold front and RH values may fall into
   the 15-25 percent range. However, temperatures also will fall and
   any elevated to near-critical conditions will be short-lived across
   the southern Plains. 

   ...Day 3-7/Sun-Thu -- Southwestern CA...

   A prolonged period of moderate to strong offshore winds appears
   likely across the region beginning Sunday evening and persisting
   through Thursday. The upper level trough deepening along the Pacific
   Coast will quickly shift east toward the Great Basin by Sunday
   night. An upper ridge will amplify over the eastern Pacific in the
   wake of the trough on Monday and remain positioned along the coast
   through most of the rest of the period. Strong north to
   northeasterly deep layer flow is expected through at least Wednesday
   morning before some weakening is expected into the end of the work
   week. At the surface, strong high pressure will settle over the
   Great Basin, leading to a favorable offshore pressure gradient
   across southern CA. 

   On Sunday evening, Sundowner winds are expected across parts of
   Santa Barbara County. While winds will be strong, RH values likely
   remain above critical levels. As flow becomes more
   east/northeasterly overnight, moderate to strong offshore winds will
   spread south and east into much of the LA basin, but RH values will
   become only marginally low. Though RH values will not reach critical
   limits, elevated fire weather conditions are still expected given
   strength of winds and drying fuels. 

   By Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, much drier air will be
   over the region and RH values are expected to fall into the 5-15
   percent range across the greater Los Angeles and San Diego area.
   Very low RH combined with moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will
   result in critical fire weather conditions Monday night into
   Wednesday. By Thursday, upper level support will diminish as
   mid/upper level flow weakens. However, an offshore pressure gradient
   will remain and at least light to moderate winds and low RH will
   continue into Thursday and possibly Friday.

   ..Leitman.. 12/01/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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