Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)
|
| D3 | Mon, Dec 04, 2017 - Tue, Dec 05, 2017 | D6 | Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017 |
| D4 | Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 | D7 | Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017 |
| D5 | Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017 | D8 | Sat, Dec 09, 2017 - Sun, Dec 10, 2017 |
| (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) | |||
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL FNUS28 KWNS 022119 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Sat Dec 02 2017 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper trough will be positioned over the western U.S. on Monday. The northern branch of this large-scale trough will shift east across the Plains to the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A surface low over the mid-MO Valley will lift northeast on Monday and a cold front will drop south/southeast across the southern Plains and mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, further west, an embedded shortwave in the southern branch of the larger-scale trough will meander across the southwestern U.S. and southern Rockies into Wednesday. Thereafter, the central U.S. trough will deepen further and persist through the remainder of the period. At the same time, an upper ridge oriented across the eastern Pacific will slowly move toward inland by the end of the period. Strong surface high pressure will settle across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, leading to a persistent offshore pressure gradient across southern CA. This will set the stage for several days of moderate to strong Santa Ana winds across southwestern CA. ...Day 3/Mon -- Central/Southern Plains... A strong cold front will drop south/southeast across the region early in the day on Monday. A dry airmass will already be in place and RH values will be near-critical through at least early afternoon before cooling temperatures behind the front lead to rising RH later in the afternoon and evening. Strong north/northwest winds around 20-25 mph with higher gusts are expected as well. Some locally critical conditions could be possible. ...Days 3-7/Mon-Fri -- Southwest California... Strong offshore winds will be ongoing Monday morning and RH values will quickly become critically low after 12z. The strongest winds are expected across the Greater Los Angeles area toward Orange County and the Inland Empire. Expect sustained speeds from 20-35 mph with higher gusts to align with RH values falling into the single digits, creating critical fire weather conditions. Winds will be lighter further south toward San Diego, though still breezy and combined with very low RH, elevated conditions are expected. Strong Santa Ana winds will continue on Tuesday with critical conditions spreading southward into the San Diego area. Single digit RH values with sustained east/northeast winds of 20-35 mph and higher gusts are expected. There may be a relative lull in strongest offshore winds on Wednesday as upper level support weakens in conjunction with slightly weaker surface pressure gradients forecast. However, light to moderate offshore winds are still expected with very low RH and elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue across the region. The overall pattern will remain favorable for dry and gusty offshore winds and elevated fire weather conditions to continue through the end of the work week and, perhaps even into the weekend. ..Leitman.. 12/02/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$ CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT