Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Updated: Sun Dec 3 21:18:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 3, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 12,843 19,814,047 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D4 12,843 19,814,047 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D5 8,945 16,498,453 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...
D3Tue, Dec 05, 2017 - Wed, Dec 06, 2017 D6Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017
D4Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017 D7Sat, Dec 09, 2017 - Sun, Dec 10, 2017
D5Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017 D8Sun, Dec 10, 2017 - Mon, Dec 11, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 032116

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 PM CST Sun Dec 03 2017

   Valid 051200Z - 111200Z

   The main fire weather concerns will be focused on southwestern
   California for much of the Day 3-8 period. An upper level trough
   will dig over the eastern half of the country on Tuesday and
   Wednesday while a cold front at the surface filters much colder air
   into much of the U.S. The large-scale upper trough will persist over
   the eastern U.S. through at least Saturday before lifting northeast
   by the end of the period. This will result in a positively tilted
   upper ridge positioned near the Pacific coast with deep layer
   north/northeasterly flow across the western Great Basin into
   southern California. At the surface, strong high pressure over the
   Great Basin in conjunction with cold boundary layer temperatures
   will reinforce a strong offshore gradient over southern California. 

   ...Day 3-6/Tue-Fri -- Southern California Coastal Ranges and
   Foothills...

   Moderate to strong Santa Ana winds will be ongoing at the beginning
   of the period. By Tuesday, RH values are expected to have fallen
   into the single digits to low teens across a broader Los Angeles to
   San Diego region. Additionally, the surface pressure gradient is
   also forecast to be strongest from late Monday night into Tuesday
   and the strongest winds of the event are expected during this time.
   This will lead to widespread critical conditions on Tuesday, with an
   upgrade to extremely critical likely needed in the future Day 2
   outlook for portions of the area. Sustained wind speeds on Tuesday
   are expected to be around 25-35 mph with gusts of 50-70 mph
   forecast. A few spots in the mountains could potentially gust to
   near 80 mph.

   By Wednesday and Thursday, conditions will remain critical but wind
   speeds will be lower than those on Tuesday. Offshore winds will
   continue into the weekend and elevated conditions could persist into
   Friday and perhaps even the weekend.

   ..Leitman.. 12/03/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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