Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Updated: Mon Dec 4 21:25:03 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 4, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 9,818 17,031,062 Los Angeles, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...
D4 12,991 19,505,669 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D3Wed, Dec 06, 2017 - Thu, Dec 07, 2017 D6Sat, Dec 09, 2017 - Sun, Dec 10, 2017
D4Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017 D7Sun, Dec 10, 2017 - Mon, Dec 11, 2017
D5Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017 D8Mon, Dec 11, 2017 - Tue, Dec 12, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 042123

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

   ...Days 3-6/Wed-Sat -- Southern California...

   Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist the
   remainder of the week into the weekend across southwest California.
   On Wednesday, the surface pressure gradient will relax some compared
   to previous days and some areas across far southwest California
   could see a brief reprieve from stronger offshore winds. However,
   guidance suggests that by Thursday, the pressure gradient will again
   strengthen and mid to upper level flow will increase, resulting in
   moderate to strong Santa Ana winds spreading southward into far
   southwest California once again. Critical conditions may continue
   into Friday. By Saturday, the pressure gradient will remain offshore
   and at least elevated fire weather conditions are expected, but
   winds should be weaker than those earlier in the week. Relative
   humidity values also will remain very low through the weekend with
   single digits to low teens expected, while temperatures gradually
   warm through the 70s to perhaps the low 80s by the weekend.

   ...Day 5/Friday -- Portions of the Central/Southern High Plains...

   A shortwave trough embedded in larger-scale eastern U.S. upper
   trough will dive southward across the Plains on Friday. This will
   bring an intense midlevel jet streak across the region. At the
   surface, a cold front will track south/southeast across the Plains
   and quite gusty winds are expected. Temperatures will be on the cool
   side, in the upper 40s and 50s, but forecast soundings show a deeply
   mixed boundary layer and PW values around 0.25 inches. As a result,
   RH values will fall to near critical. At this time, sustained
   northwest winds around 15-25 mph with higher gusts appear possible
   and some locally critical conditions can not be ruled out.

   ..Leitman.. 12/04/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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