Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Updated: Tue Dec 5 21:11:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 5, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 15,610 19,951,276 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D4 15,610 19,951,276 Los Angeles, CA...San Diego, CA...Long Beach, CA...Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...
D3Thu, Dec 07, 2017 - Fri, Dec 08, 2017 D6Sun, Dec 10, 2017 - Mon, Dec 11, 2017
D4Fri, Dec 08, 2017 - Sat, Dec 09, 2017 D7Mon, Dec 11, 2017 - Tue, Dec 12, 2017
D5Sat, Dec 09, 2017 - Sun, Dec 10, 2017 D8Tue, Dec 12, 2017 - Wed, Dec 13, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 052109

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

   ...Days 3-6/Thu-Sun -- Portions of Southern California...

   Critical fire weather conditions will continue across coastal
   southern California through at least Friday afternoon. The last few
   run of medium range guidance indicated that Thursday could see more
   widespread extremely critical conditions across the mountains and
   foothills of the greater Los Angeles and San Diego areas. The
   forecast surface pressure gradient early Day 3/Thursday will be
   similar to that on Day 1/Tuesday morning and intense winds with
   single digit to 10 percent RH values will be common.  Temperatures
   also will be warmer on Thursday as an upper level ridge amplifies
   along the Pacific coast.

   Critical conditions likely will continue into Friday before the
   surface pressure gradient begins to relax on Saturday and Sunday,
   though elevated fire conditions likely will persist into the
   weekend. An amplified pattern will persist across the U.S. through
   much of the Day 3-8 period with a deep upper trough over the eastern
   U.S. and the upper ridge over the western states. Surface high
   pressure also will remain over the interior west, maintaining an
   offshore gradient across southern California. This will result in
   continued offshore winds, though these winds should be much weaker
   by Sunday into next week. While wind speeds will decrease by early
   next week, very dry conditions will continue.

   ...Day 4/Friday -- Portions of the Central and Southern High
   Plains...

   Gusty northwesterly winds are expected behind a cold frontal passage
   on Friday afternoon. A very dry airmass will be in place and RH
   values will fall near or below the critical threshold. Dormant fine
   fuels and a lack of recent precipitation will lead to at least
   elevated fire weather conditions and possible upgrades to critical
   may be needed if current trends continue.

   ..Leitman.. 12/05/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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