Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Updated: Thu Dec 28 20:42:02 UTC 2017

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Dec 28, 2017

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Dec 30, 2017 - Sun, Dec 31, 2017 D6Tue, Jan 02, 2018 - Wed, Jan 03, 2018
D4Sun, Dec 31, 2017 - Mon, Jan 01, 2018 D7Wed, Jan 03, 2018 - Thu, Jan 04, 2018
D5Mon, Jan 01, 2018 - Tue, Jan 02, 2018 D8Thu, Jan 04, 2018 - Fri, Jan 05, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282040

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CST Thu Dec 28 2017

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   A shortwave trough moving southeastward from the Pacific Northwest
   to the central Rockies/Plains on Day 3/Saturday will contribute to
   renewed surface cyclogenesis across the central/southern High Plains
   by Saturday evening. From Day 4/Sunday onward, repeated intrusions
   of a cold low-level airmass along/east of the Rockies will limit
   critical fire weather concerns for the central/eastern CONUS. Across
   the western CONUS, upper ridging may become re-established from Day
   4/Sunday into Day 6/Tuesday, before an upper trough/low possibly
   erodes this ridge from Day 7/Wednesday onward as it moves from the
   eastern Pacific over CA.

   ...Day 3/Saturday: Portions of the Southern High Plains...
   As the surface pressure gradient strengthens across the southern
   High Plains on Day 3/Saturday, strong/gusty downslope winds may
   occur Saturday afternoon across mainly east-central NM in
   combination with critically lowered RH values. At this time,
   confidence in sustained winds of 20+ mph occurring on a widespread
   basis is too low to include a 70%/likely critical delineation. Have
   therefore maintained the 40%/marginal area with minor changes.

   ...Day 6/Tuesday - Day 7/Wednesday: Portions of Southern CA...
   Medium-range guidance has exhibited large run-to-run variability
   over the past several days regarding the upper pattern across the
   western CONUS for the early to middle part of next week. Confidence
   has decreased regarding a possible offshore wind event across parts
   of southern CA in the Day 6/Tuesday to Day 7/Wednesday time frame,
   with most deterministic/ensemble guidance now indicating a much
   lower potential for this scenario than yesterday. Will not include
   any probabilities for critical conditions across southern CA due to
   this high degree of uncertainty.

   ..Gleason.. 12/28/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT