Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Updated: Mon Jan 1 21:13:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 1, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Jan 03, 2018 - Thu, Jan 04, 2018 D6Sat, Jan 06, 2018 - Sun, Jan 07, 2018
D4Thu, Jan 04, 2018 - Fri, Jan 05, 2018 D7Sun, Jan 07, 2018 - Mon, Jan 08, 2018
D5Fri, Jan 05, 2018 - Sat, Jan 06, 2018 D8Mon, Jan 08, 2018 - Tue, Jan 09, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012111

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 091200Z

   The probability of Critical fire weather conditions remains low
   during the day 3-8 period, as a strong surface high and relatively
   cold temperatures remain entrenched across much of the CONUS east of
   the Rockies. The surface high will begin to break down over portions
   of the Southern Rockies/High Plains as early as Day 4/Thursday, with
   periodic lee surface troughing through the remainder of the period
   promoting occasional periods of enhanced westerly downslope flow
   over New Mexico. However, ensemble guidance suggests that the
   probability of Critical RH values overlapping enhanced low-level
   flow is low at this time.  

   Lastly, despite the continued presence of surface high pressure over
   the Great Basin and Rockies -- which will occasionally support
   low-level offshore flow over southern CA -- the pressure gradient is
   forecast to remain too weak for Critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Elliott.. 01/01/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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