Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Updated: Tue Jan 2 20:46:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 2, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Jan 04, 2018 - Fri, Jan 05, 2018 D6Sun, Jan 07, 2018 - Mon, Jan 08, 2018
D4Fri, Jan 05, 2018 - Sat, Jan 06, 2018 D7Mon, Jan 08, 2018 - Tue, Jan 09, 2018
D5Sat, Jan 06, 2018 - Sun, Jan 07, 2018 D8Tue, Jan 09, 2018 - Wed, Jan 10, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 022044

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CST Tue Jan 02 2018

   Valid 041200Z - 101200Z

   Upper ridging over the western CONUS will be eroded by a shortwave
   trough moving southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the
   southern Plains from Day 4/Friday through Day 6/Sunday. Associated
   surface lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the
   southern/central High Plains in the same time frame, and
   strong/gusty downslope winds may occur each afternoon over parts of
   the southern High Plains. At this time, diurnal reduction of RH
   values each day from Day 4/Friday to Day 6/Sunday appears too
   marginal to warrant inclusion of probabilities for critical fire
   weather conditions for any portion of the southern High Plains.

   A cold front passage across the Southeast will result in a dry/cool
   low-level airmass across much of FL from Day 3/Thursday through the
   upcoming weekend. Although RH values may fall below critical
   thresholds (30/35%) each afternoon across parts of the
   central/southern FL Peninsula, wind speeds are generally expected to
   remain light. With precipitation chances across this region on Day
   2/Wednesday potentially limiting fuel receptiveness, the likelihood
   for critical fire weather conditions appears too low to include any
   probabilities at this time.

   ..Gleason.. 01/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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