Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Updated: Sat Jan 13 20:39:02 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Jan 13, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Jan 15, 2018 - Tue, Jan 16, 2018 D6Thu, Jan 18, 2018 - Fri, Jan 19, 2018
D4Tue, Jan 16, 2018 - Wed, Jan 17, 2018 D7Fri, Jan 19, 2018 - Sat, Jan 20, 2018
D5Wed, Jan 17, 2018 - Thu, Jan 18, 2018 D8Sat, Jan 20, 2018 - Sun, Jan 21, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132037

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0237 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   Through most of the upcoming week, amplified cyclonic mid/upper flow
   will persist across the eastern half of the US. This pattern will
   favor primarily continental air masses residing across much of the
   Plains and eastern US. In turn, cold conditions should maintain RH
   values above critical thresholds through much of the extended.

   By late week into next weekend, deterministic and ensemble guidance
   signal the potential for more amplified troughing across the western
   US. This pattern would favor strengthening southwesterly flow at
   mid/low levels across the southern High Plains, resulting in
   considerable downslope drying/warming. In turn, there may exist an
   increasing potential for critical conditions by the D7/Fri-D8/Sat
   time frame. If guidance continues to highlight this potential over
   the coming days, probabilistic designations will likely be needed.

   ..Picca.. 01/13/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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