Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Updated: Mon Apr 16 20:43:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on Apr 16, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 127,581 5,620,113 Tucson, AZ...Albuquerque, NM...Mesa, AZ...Chandler, AZ...Scottsdale, AZ...
D5 59,925 1,203,666 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...
D3Wed, Apr 18, 2018 - Thu, Apr 19, 2018 D6Sat, Apr 21, 2018 - Sun, Apr 22, 2018
D4Thu, Apr 19, 2018 - Fri, Apr 20, 2018 D7Sun, Apr 22, 2018 - Mon, Apr 23, 2018
D5Fri, Apr 20, 2018 - Sat, Apr 21, 2018 D8Mon, Apr 23, 2018 - Tue, Apr 24, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162041

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0341 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   A progressive mid-level pattern is forecast to persist across the
   country through the extended period. One shortwave trough (and
   associated closed low) will depart the central US to the east on
   D3/Wed and a ridge will briefly build into place over the Plains.
   However, by D5/Fri, a more amplified system is forecast to approach
   the southern/central Plains, yielding both an enhancement to
   fire-weather concerns across parts of the Southwest, but also
   wetting rainfall to many drought-plagued areas of the southern
   Plains.

   ...D3/Wed -- Parts of Kansas and Oklahoma...
   In the wake of the departing mid-week impulse, dry/windy
   post-frontal conditions will likely maintain some enhancement of
   fire-weather concerns. A continuation of dry fuels will favor
   elevated/locally critical conditions as well. Therefore, a
   40%/marginal area has been introduced.

   ...D4/Thu-D5/Fri -- Desert Southwest to the Southern/Central High
   Plains...
   The approach of the secondary closed low will bring strong, dry
   south/southwesterly flow to parts of Arizona and New Mexico on
   D4/Thu. Combined with dry fuels, low RH and gusty winds will likely
   support critical conditions, and the ongoing 70% area is maintained.
   Farther east, the 40%/marginal area over the southern/central High
   Plains has been focused farther north (e.g., NE NM, NW TX Panhandle,
   and points north), where a corridor of drier air is forecast within
   an initial return flow regime.

   On Friday, critical fire-weather conditions will shift east across
   parts of New Mexico and the Texas Trans-Pecos. The ongoing 70% and
   40% areas were contracted and focused farther south/west, though, as
   guidance has trended towards a slower eastward progression of the
   trough and dry line. To the east of the dry line, convection will
   bring wetting rainfall to many locations, decreasing fire-weather
   concerns.

   Some fire-weather concerns may persist on D6/Saturday near the Texas
   Big Bend, as this region may avoid much of the aforementioned
   precipitation. While confidence in critical conditions is too low
   for probabilities at this time, they could be introduced in later
   forecast cycles.

   ..Picca.. 04/16/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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