Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Issued on May 16, 2018

Updated: Wed May 16 21:40:03 UTC 2018

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018
 
Day 3 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 3 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 4 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 4 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 5 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 5 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 6 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 6 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 7 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 7 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Day 8 Probabilistic Dry Thunder/Strong Wind FireWX Forecast Graphic Issued on May 16, 2018

Day 8 Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Outlooks:
Probability of dry thunderstorms with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by scalloped lines for
- Critical Area - 40% (blue)
- Marginal Area - 10% (brown)
Probability of strong winds, low RH, and warm temperatures concurrent for at least 3 hours with dry fuels within 12 miles of a point denoted by solid lines for
- Critical Area - 70% (red)
- Marginal Area - 40% (orange)


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 82,990 1,379,070 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...
D3Fri, May 18, 2018 - Sat, May 19, 2018 D6Mon, May 21, 2018 - Tue, May 22, 2018
D4Sat, May 19, 2018 - Sun, May 20, 2018 D7Tue, May 22, 2018 - Wed, May 23, 2018
D5Sun, May 20, 2018 - Mon, May 21, 2018 D8Wed, May 23, 2018 - Thu, May 24, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162138

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0438 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   An upper trough over the western CONUS on Day 3/Friday will move
   slowly eastward to the Plains while slowly weakening into Day
   4/Saturday. Enhanced mid-level winds on the southern periphery of
   this trough will overspread parts of the Southwest and
   southern/central High Plains by Friday afternoon, likely increasing
   critical fire weather concerns across these areas. Another upper
   trough/low may move over the western states around Day 6/Monday into
   Day 7/Tuesday, although differences between medium-range model
   guidance remain substantial in the location and amplitude of this
   feature at this extended time frame.

   ...Day 3: Portions of the Southwest and Southern/Central Plains...
   Critical conditions continue to appear likely across parts of
   southern/eastern NM and vicinity on Day 3/Friday. Behind a surface
   dryline, strong/gusty winds are expected to occur Friday afternoon
   along with critically reduced RH values. There remains uncertainty
   regarding how far east the dryline will mix. Have expanded the
   70%/critical area slightly eastward into the far western TX/OK
   Panhandles and west TX, but attempted to remain generally west of
   forecast precipitation that may occur through Day 2/Thursday. Only
   minor changes were made to the eastward extent of the surrounding
   40%/marginal area.

   ...Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday: Portions of the Southwest...
   Some potential for critical fire weather concerns may return across
   parts of the Southwest on Day 6/Monday into Day 7/Tuesday as another
   upper trough/low mentioned previously moves over the western CONUS.
   For now, there is too much uncertainty in the placement of strongest
   low-level winds and potentially lowered RH values to include any
   probabilities for critical fire weather conditions.

   ..Gleason.. 05/16/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT