Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 22, 2018
Updated: Thu Feb 22 20:58:02 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Feb 24, 2018 - Sun, Feb 25, 2018 D6Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018
D4Sun, Feb 25, 2018 - Mon, Feb 26, 2018 D7Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018
D5Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018 D8Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 222056

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 021200Z

   Models continue to depict persistent mid-level troughing across the
   West throughout the D3-D8 forecast period.  In response to the
   mid/upper troughing, a persistent lee surface trough will oscillate
   across portions of western Texas/Oklahoma through at least D6/Tue. 
   Fire weather concerns will substantially increase in response to
   this pattern primarily across the southern High Plains, although the
   degree of fire weather risk will depend on how fuels recover/cure in
   response to extensive precipitation in some portions of the region.

   ...D3/Sat through D7/Wed - Portions of the southern High Plains and
   Periods of elevated to critical atmospheric fire weather conditions
   will develop during peak heating hours each day as
   westerly/southwesterly downslope develops behind the slowly evolving
   surface trough.  Given the overall favorable synoptic regime for an
   extended period of heightened fire weather conditions, 40%
   probability areas have been introduced and/or maintained for at
   least some portion of this region through D7/Wed.

   As stated earlier, fuel states will be a primary complicating factor
   for greater confidence in critical fire weather conditions occurring
   during the extended period.  Extensive amounts of precipitation and
   cloudiness have occurred across the region over the past several
   days (particularly in southern New Mexico, portions of the Texas
   South Plains, and northeastward into Oklahoma).  The dry pattern
   will likely result in extensive curing of fine fuels at the very
   least, and this curing will likely be most pronounced in portions of
   the Texas Panhandle and northeastern New Mexico where the least
   rainfall has occurred.

   Once concerns about fuel states are resolved, higher probabilities
   and/or critical delineations may be needed - especially on D5/Mon as
   windy and dry conditions develop across relatively dry regions of
   northeastern New Mexico northeastward into western Kansas where
   drought is most likely to persist.  Although 40% areas exist through
   D7/Wed, confidence on specific location of the surface trough
   becomes low.  These areal delineations (D6/Tue and D7/Wed) may need
   adjusting in future forecast cycles.

   ..Cook.. 02/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: February 22, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities