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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 30, 2015
Updated: Sun Aug 30 20:38:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Sep 01, 2015 - Wed, Sep 02, 2015 D6Fri, Sep 04, 2015 - Sat, Sep 05, 2015
D4Wed, Sep 02, 2015 - Thu, Sep 03, 2015 D7Sat, Sep 05, 2015 - Sun, Sep 06, 2015
D5Thu, Sep 03, 2015 - Fri, Sep 04, 2015 D8Sun, Sep 06, 2015 - Mon, Sep 07, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 302036

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

   MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THROUGH
   MUCH OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
   LOCALLY ENHANCING AREAS OF TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/SFC WINDS. WHERE RH
   VALUES BECOME LOW PERIPHERAL TO THE TROUGHING PATTERN...ELEVATED
   FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE
   FROM CNTRL/NRN NV TO E-CNTRL WY ON D4/WED WHEN LOCALIZED CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR...IN TANDEM WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
   TROUGH. HOWEVER...DISPERSION AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES AND THE STRENGTH OF
   LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
   FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. FURTHERMORE...THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
   SUGGEST THAT NO MORE THAN MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS WOULD ALIGN WITH
   LOW RH. AS SUCH...CRITICAL AREAS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

   ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT ACROSS OTHER AREAS FROM THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
   CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE D3/TUE-D8/SUN PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY
   FOR MIDDLE/LATTER PARTS OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONGST
   MODEL SOLUTIONS...COUPLED WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
   STRONG WINDS TO COMBINE WITH LOW RH AS DEPICTED BY THE BULK OF THESE
   SOLUTIONS...PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS AT THIS
   TIME. HOWEVER...INTRODUCTION OF THESE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
   BASIN -- IF INDIVIDUAL-MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND MULTI-MODEL
   CONSENSUS WERE TO CONVERGE ON ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER RISK AREAS.

   ..COHEN.. 08/30/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: August 30, 2015
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