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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 1, 2015
Updated: Wed Apr 1 20:52:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 41,537 338,072 Farmington, NM...Gallup, NM...Winslow, AZ...Cortez, CO...
D3Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - Sat, Apr 04, 2015 D6Mon, Apr 06, 2015 - Tue, Apr 07, 2015
D4Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - Sun, Apr 05, 2015 D7Tue, Apr 07, 2015 - Wed, Apr 08, 2015
D5Sun, Apr 05, 2015 - Mon, Apr 06, 2015 D8Wed, Apr 08, 2015 - Thu, Apr 09, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 012050

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

   AN ACTIVE FIRE-WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN
   CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
   SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ATTENDANT CHANNELS OF STRONG
   MID/LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
   WEST/CNTRL CONUS. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ROUNDS
   OF CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.
   WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
   CONUS...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING EACH DAY WILL PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS AND
   ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

   ...D3/FRI -- PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN
   BASIN...
   AS A SFC LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...HIGH PRESSURE
   WILL BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX
   FOLLOWING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE...RESULTING IN RH VALUES
   HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
   OF NERN NM/TX PANHANDLE. NONETHELESS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVERLAP
   BETWEEN LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY N/NELY FLOW TO FOSTER CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN AND SERN NM. IN
   TURN...THE PREVIOUS 40-PERCENT DELINEATION WAS MAINTAINED WITH MINOR
   EDITS. 

   ...D4/SAT -- PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...
   FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES ON
   D4/SAT. AT THE SFC...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
   NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE TOWARDS
   THE TN VALLEY. THE RESULTANT SFC PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS WILL FOSTER GUSTY SLY FLOW. THIS RESPONSE...CONCOMITANT
   WITH DEEP DIURNAL MIXING...WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASED FIRE-WX THREAT
   ONCE AGAIN. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF WETTING RAINS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PRIOR 1-2 DAYS.
   AS SUCH...WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY PORTION OF THE 40-PERCENT DELINEATION
   IN THIS REGION WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...WINDY
   CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND DRY
   WLY FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO CRITICAL
   LEVELS DURING THE DAY.

   ...D5-D8/SUN-WED -- SWRN STATES...
   AS A MEAN TROUGH ALOFT PROGRESSES EWD OVER THE SWRN CONUS DURING
   THIS TIME FRAME...AN ATTENDANT CHANNEL OF ENHANCED UPPER/MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY LOW RH
   VALUES AND STRONG WINDS EACH DAY. FURTHERMORE...MEDIUM-RANGE
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUCH
   THAT THE PREVIOUS 40-PERCENT DELINEATIONS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED...AND
   ANOTHER APPENDED FOR THE D8/WED PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TX/SRN
   NM. ALSO...A 70-PERCENT CRITICAL DELINEATION HAS BEEN ADDED AROUND
   THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR D5/SUN...AS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY
   SIGNALED AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN THIS
   AREA.

   ..PICCA.. 04/01/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 01, 2015
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