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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 23, 2014
Updated: Sun Nov 23 21:14:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Nov 25, 2014 - Wed, Nov 26, 2014 D6Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - Sat, Nov 29, 2014
D4Wed, Nov 26, 2014 - Thu, Nov 27, 2014 D7Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - Sun, Nov 30, 2014
D5Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - Fri, Nov 28, 2014 D8Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - Mon, Dec 01, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 232112

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 011200Z

   MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE ENCOMPASSED BY LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW
   TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW
   WILL PROGRESS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE WEEK...WITH A
   POSSIBLE PHASING OF TWO OF THESE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NERN CONUS BY
   D4/WED-D5/THU. IN RESPONSE AT THE SFC...ONE TRANSIENT SFC CYCLONE
   WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/MIDWEST...WHILE A RAPIDLY
   DEEPENING CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS N/NE ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
   SEABOARD. BEHIND THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BY
   THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND RELATIVELY
   LOW FIRE WX CONCERNS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.

   ...SRN CA...
   ACROSS THE WEST...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING
   SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW
   WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCEMENT IN OFFSHORE FLOW LIKELY EARLY ON
   D3/TUE...AS SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IS STRENGTHENED IN
   THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.
   WITH TWO PRIOR DAYS OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING DUE TO THE OFFSHORE
   REGIME...PRECONDITIONING OF FUELS AND LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND
   8-15 PERCENT WILL BE PRESENT D3/TUE-D4/WED. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND
   ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BY
   D4...CONTINUED DRYING OF FINE FUELS AND THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
   COLUMN NECESSITATE THE CONTINUATION OF THE 40-PERCENT DELINEATION
   THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
   AND RH VALUES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE...AS RIDGING ALOFT SUBSIDES AND
   ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

   ..PICCA.. 11/23/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: November 23, 2014
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