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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 25, 2014
Updated: Tue Nov 25 21:19:03 UTC 2014  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Starting on June 5, 2012 to January 30, 2013, SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Day 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
D3-8 FW Categorical D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Prob. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Nov 27, 2014 - Fri, Nov 28, 2014 D6Sun, Nov 30, 2014 - Mon, Dec 01, 2014
D4Fri, Nov 28, 2014 - Sat, Nov 29, 2014 D7Mon, Dec 01, 2014 - Tue, Dec 02, 2014
D5Sat, Nov 29, 2014 - Sun, Nov 30, 2014 D8Tue, Dec 02, 2014 - Wed, Dec 03, 2014
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252117

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 031200Z

   THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTING
   THE NERN CONUS...WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE TOWARDS
   THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SFC REFLECTION WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
   COASTAL LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING NE INTO THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES...WITH A TRANSIENT LOW RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE E ACROSS THE
   NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. BEHIND THIS LOW...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   BUILD ACROSS THE NRN STATES. 

   WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS...TROUGHING IN
   THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...DEEP DIURNAL MIXING...AND PERIODS OF
   ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL FOSTER BREEZY AND DRY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
   WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROBABILITY OF
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS LOW. AS SUCH...NO PROBABILISTIC
   DELINEATIONS ARE NEEDED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   CONUS...THE ZONAL FLOW WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT A SFC PATTERN IN WHICH
   AREAS OF LOW RH FAIL TO OVERLAP AREAS OF STRONG WINDS.

   ...SRN CA...
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
   CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES LIKELY IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND
   TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS THROUGH D4/FRI-D5/SAT. WITH A RETURN TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THOUGH...A WEAKENING SFC PRES
   GRADIENT WILL AID IN SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS. NONETHELESS...AREAS OF ELEVATED CONDITIONS SEEM POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ENHANCED SW FLOW ON D5/SAT AHEAD OF AN
   UPSTREAM TROUGH MAY ALSO LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS ACROSS
   THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO
   DEPART. PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS ARE NOT NECESSARY HOWEVER...AS
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.

   SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BY D6/SUN-D7/MON
   WILL BRING AN END TO ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
   WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
   NEXT WEEK.

   ..PICCA.. 11/25/2014

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: November 25, 2014
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