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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 24, 2015
Updated: Fri Apr 24 20:39:02 UTC 2015  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sun, Apr 26, 2015 - Mon, Apr 27, 2015 D6Wed, Apr 29, 2015 - Thu, Apr 30, 2015
D4Mon, Apr 27, 2015 - Tue, Apr 28, 2015 D7Thu, Apr 30, 2015 - Fri, May 01, 2015
D5Tue, Apr 28, 2015 - Wed, Apr 29, 2015 D8Fri, May 01, 2015 - Sat, May 02, 2015
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242037

   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 021200Z

   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION ON D3/SUNDAY...WITH
   80-90 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET MAX LOCATED OVER CA/NV JUST WEST OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORTWAVE...A BELT OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
   THE U.S. FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CAROLINAS. THE WESTERN
   U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN
   HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF D3...THEN MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARD
   THE EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH D5/TUE. BY D6/WED...TROUGH WILL
   OPEN UP AND MOVE NEWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
   DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE NRN
   ROCKIES. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING UPON THE BRITISH
   COLUMBIA COAST. SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP ON D6 AND
   BEYOND...DECREASING PREDICTABILITY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.

   ...D3/SUN: WRN/SWRN TX AND SERN NM...
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD SW TX AND FAR SERN NM
   DURING THE D3 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR
   THE AZ/NM BORDER AREA. A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
   REGION...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FORECAST TO DROP TO 10-15 PERCENT
   PARTICULARLY OVER THE TRANS-PECOS REGION. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...WHERE 20-30 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ARE
   POSSIBLE. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA ACROSS SERN NM...SURFACE
   WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT CRITICAL RH
   THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
   CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET...BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST
   TO BE WEAKER. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL GREENUP IN SOME PARTS OF THE
   REGION...FUELS MAY NOT BE DRY OR RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS. AS A
   RESULT...A 70 PERCENT/CRITICAL DESIGNATION WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR
   THIS OUTLOOK...BUT FUTURE OUTLOOKS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
   GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

   ...D3/SUN: WRN AZ/SERN CA...
   SOLAR HEATING BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION WILL
   PROMOTE VERTICAL MIXING AND DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM
   AIR...YIELDING AFTERNOON SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS. WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT IN
   PARTS OF THE REGION...AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA BUT CONCERNS ABOUT DRYNESS/AVAILABILITY OF
   FUELS PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A 70 PERCENT/CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.

   ...D4/MON: SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO THE GREAT BASIN ON D4 WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA.
   WITH A DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RH VALUES
   DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND AREAS...EXPECT AT LEAST A
   BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN TYPICALLY-FAVORED
   AREAS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. A LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE
   PRECEDING RAINFALL FORECAST TO OCCUR ON D3/SUN ACROSS THE
   AREA...WHICH MAY ALTER THE STATE OF THE FUELS ENOUGH TO LIMIT FIRE
   THREAT. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH LOCAL OFFICES...A 40
   PERCENT/ELEVATED AREA WAS ADDED TO THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY
   MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.

   ..COOK/LEITMAN.. 04/24/2015

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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