Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040850
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   351 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - S-CENTRAL AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM
   AND FAR WRN TX
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER LOW OVER SERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME STATIONARY
   ALONG SRN AZ/NM BORDER BY THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD
   INTO NWRN MEXICO OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
   CO FRONT RANGE AND NERN NM NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SWRN
   GREAT LAKES AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE FRONT TODAY FROM NRN NM EWD
   AND NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH HIGHER
   DAYTIME RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED OVER SRN CO/NERN NM. 
   
   ELSEWHERE...A STRONG 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD ALONG
   THE WEST COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD THE
   WA COASTLINE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD/FLAT UPPER
   RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.  
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - S-CENTRAL/SERN AZ...SRN AZ...AND
   FAR WRN TX
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS / VERY LOW RH VALUES /
   LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
   
   WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE ERN
   PLAINS OF NM TODAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTREMELY POOR RH
   RECOVERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES
   THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING FROM 5-15 PERCENT ACROSS THE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW HIGH
   TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 90F IN SERN NM TO THE LOW 100S ACROSS
   THE BASINS OF CENTRAL/SRN AZ. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF DEEP/DRY
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WEAKER WINDS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER
   WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS TODAY COMPARED TO
   YESTERDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS /15-25 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER
   WINDS...HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS
   WARRANT CONTINUATION OF A RELATIVELY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   AREA FROM S-CENTRAL AZ EWD INTO FAR WRN TX. 
   
   ...COLUMBIA BASIN OF WA...
   BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL
   ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN WA
   WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 20-
   30 PERCENT. LIGHT TO MODERATE DAYTIME SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 10-20
   MPH ARE ANTICIPATED...LIMITING THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT...SOME LOCALLY BREEZY
   CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS WSWLY 700MB
   FLOW STRENGTHENS. DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN THE
   VALLEYS WILL LIKELY CONFINE OVERNIGHT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO HIGHER
   TERRAIN AREAS. 
     
   ..BANACOS.. 06/04/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040848
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   350 AM CDT TUE JUN 04 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...ETA AND AVN ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
   NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW WEAKENING ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. THIS WILL
   RESULT IN WEAKER WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. A BROAD UPPER
   RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WRN GULF COAST ENEWD TO THE CAROLINA
   COASTLINE. THE WESTERLIES WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE/PROGRESSIVE
   DURING THE PERIOD WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING EWD ACROSS
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NRN WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A COLD
   FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATTER WAVE WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD
   ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING FROM NWRN MT SWWD TO
   NWRN CA AT 06/00Z. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 700MB FLOW OF
   40-45KT WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WINDS.    
   
   ...ERN SLOPES OF WA/ORE CASCADES EWD TO ID BORDER...  
   POST-FRONTAL WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON FROM THE CASCADES OF WA/ORE EWD ACROSS NRN ID INTO WRN
   MT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. ADDITIONALLY...
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE LOWEST RH VALUES
   EAST OF THE CASCADES IN CENTRAL WA/ORE. MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30
   PERCENT APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
   BASIN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
   BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MARGINALLY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS... DEPENDENT UPON PRECIPITATION
   AMOUNTS AND HOW RAPIDLY CLEARING TAKES PLACE TO ALLOW AFTERNOON
   HEATING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. 
   
   ...SWRN CONUS...
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS /BELOW 15 MPH/ WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   DESPITE CONTINUATION OF VERY LOW AFTERNOON/EVENING RH VALUES /5-10
   PERCENT/ ACROSS SWRN NM...AZ...CENTRAL AND SRN UT...NV...AND
   INTERIOR SRN CA. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
   MTNS OF ERN AZ/WRN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   LINGERING ON NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/04/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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