Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050823
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   324 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
   THE NORTHERN U.S. TODAY. SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
   ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH TRANSLATES RAPIDLY EWD ALONG THE WA/BRITISH COLUMBIA BORDER
   THROUGH 06/06Z. EAST OF THE RIDGE...NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
   WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS PERIOD ACROSS SRN AZ AND NWRN MEXICO.
   EAST OF THE ROCKIES...A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
   WRN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EWD TO ERN MI SWWD INTO
   THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY 06/12Z. THE STRONG SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
   WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...WA AND ORE EAST OF THE CASCADE MTNS...
   WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...
   WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN WA AND
   ORE WITH WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH FROM THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH
   THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AREAS OF MARGINALLY LOW RH /GENERALLY
   BETWEEN 25-30 PERCENT...BUT DOWN TO 20 PERCENT LOCALLY/ WILL
   DEVELOP PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN...OWING TO DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS FROM THE CASCADE MTNS. PASSAGE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
   BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...
   HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
   DESPITE PASSAGE OF DRY COLD FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
   INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS AS SKIES BEGIN TO
   CLEAR BY AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES/FUEL
   CONDITIONS SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT QUITE
   BE REACHED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  
   
   ...SWRN CONUS...  
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS /LESS THAN 15 MPH/ ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   MOST OF THE SWRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS WIND FIELDS WEAKEN AROUND
   DECAYING UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-10 PERCENT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
   ACROSS AZ...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND SRN CA. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER /RH DOWN 5-10 PERCENT/ COMPARED TO
   YESTERDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS/DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS SUGGEST MODEST POTENTIAL FOR PLUME-DOMINATED FIRE
   GROWTH...HOWEVER THE WEAK WINDS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA AT THIS TIME. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SERN
   AZ/SWRN NM MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD. COVERAGE
   IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TOO WARRANT A WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/05/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050855
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   358 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
   BECOME MORE ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE U.S. WHILE
   A BROAD/FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD FROM SRN CA INTO THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL FOCUS UPON VERY
   STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /80KT AT 500MB/ MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN
   MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN/FAR NRN MT. ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT WILL RACE EWD
   ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BRINGING STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. BAND OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID-
   LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND SWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE
   MTNS CENTRAL/WRN WY RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE WIND
   SPEEDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
   DAYS. 
     
   ...CENTRAL/ERN MT...
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THURSDAY AS WLY WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
   COLD FRONT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STRONG GRADIENT FLOW AND STEEP LOW-
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUSTAIN STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
   DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
   MINIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY WILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT LOWER THAN
   THOSE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND RANGE FROM 20-30
   PERCENT. FUELS AT THIS TIME ARE RELATIVELY MOIST ACROSS THIS
   PORTION OF MT...AND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARD TO THE
   SEVERITY OF THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ON A SMALLER SCALE...AREAS
   WHERE FUELS ARE LOCALLY DRY MAY EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN EXPECTED WINDY/DRY
   CONDITIONS.  
   
   ...NRN NV EWD INTO S-CENTRAL WY...
   THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION WILL BE ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAST
   MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...WHEN VERTICAL MIXING IS MOST ENHANCED...SUSTAINED WLY
   WINDS UP TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-15
   PERCENT ARE PROBABLE GIVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. GIVEN DRY
   FUEL CONDITIONS...PORTIONS OF THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL AREA IN TOMORROW/S DAY 1 FIRE
   WEATHER OUTLOOK IF SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.   
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/05/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home