Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 060832
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
333 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 061200-071200
...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD
ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE IN
REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE STRONG/FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER NWRN MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE EWD...REACHING FAR SWRN MANITOBA TONIGHT. BAND OF WLY 70-
75KT 500MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT...WHILE A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL SWWD BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MT/WY BORDER...WWD TO NRN CA. A FLAT 500MB RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS.
...CENTRAL AND ERN MT...
WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
GRADIENT FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC-700MB WILL
ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING AND ALLOW FOR 20-30 MPH WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MTNS AND THE DRY NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...RANGING FROM 20-25 PERCENT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
FUEL CONDITIONS...WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY DRY AT
THIS TIME. DESPITE FAVORABLE AMBIENT CONDITIONS...FUELS WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.
...NRN NV EWD INTO S-CENTRAL WY...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
THE MTNS OF S-CENTRAL WY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WLY SURFACE WINDS OF
15-25 MPH ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20
PERCENT. NOAA/CPC DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT AND PALMER INDEX VALUES
SUGGEST AREAS OF DRY FUELS IN THIS REGION...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE MET THIS PERIOD.
...SWRN CONUS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS /AT OR BELOW 15 MPH/ DRIVEN BY
LOCAL MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF
THE SWRN U.S. BENEATH STRONG 500MB RIDGE. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
YIELD EXTREMELY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 PERCENT
OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS/BASINS OF NM/AZ/SRN
CA. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID FOR 07/00Z INDICATE STEEP...NEARLY
DRY ADIABATIC LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX
VALUES OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY BURNING
IN/NEAR HEAVIER FUEL LOADINGS. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS
OVER FAR SERN AZ AND SWRN NM FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED COVERAGE LIMITING OVERALL THREAT OF DRY
LIGHTNING/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
..BANACOS.. 06/06/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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FNUS22 KWNS 060922
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
423 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 071200-081200
***EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/SRN UT AND WRN
CO***
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ETA AND AVN ARE
CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG...BROAD...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST AND SW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE DRY FUELS
EXIST. SWLY 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL
UT/WRN CO DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
CENTRAL WY AT 08/00Z.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN UT AND WRN
CO
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / EXTREMELY DRY FUELS / EXTREMELY LOW RH
VALUES
SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY DRY LOW-MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH 500MB...LEADING TO HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES
WHILE INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING/POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREMELY
LOW RH VALUES...FROM 5-15 PERCENT...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
LIKELY. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY LOW
DAYTIME RH AND VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS PER NOAA/CPC DROUGHT
MONITOR AND FOREST SERVICE WFAS PAGE SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEM BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1...INCLUDING NV
EXCEPT SRN SECTIONS...REMAINDER OF UT...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WY...CENTRAL
CO...NRN NM...AND NRN AZ...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: BREEZY / EXTREMELY DRY FUELS / VERY LOW RH
VALUES / WIND SHIFT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL NV
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WLY TO
SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. AFTER 08/00Z...THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
NWRN GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY MOVE SWD RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO
NLY AT 10-15 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NV DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
..BANACOS.. 06/06/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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