Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060832
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   333 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD
   ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURE IN
   REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER WILL BE STRONG/FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CENTERED OVER NWRN MT EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD...REACHING FAR SWRN MANITOBA TONIGHT. BAND OF WLY 70-
   75KT 500MB WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MT...WHILE A DRY
   COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON.
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL SWWD BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
   THE MT/WY BORDER...WWD TO NRN CA. A FLAT 500MB RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
   FROM THE ERN PACIFIC EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. 
   
   ...CENTRAL AND ERN MT...
   WLY TO NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   GRADIENT FLOW AND DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC-700MB WILL
   ENHANCE VERTICAL MIXING AND ALLOW FOR 20-30 MPH WINDS...AND LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
   LATE EVENING HOURS. COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN HIGH
   TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN OBSERVED HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
   HOWEVER...DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE MTNS AND THE DRY NATURE OF THIS
   SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
   THIS EVENING...RANGING FROM 20-25 PERCENT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE
   FUEL CONDITIONS...WHICH DO NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY DRY AT
   THIS TIME. DESPITE FAVORABLE AMBIENT CONDITIONS...FUELS  WILL
   PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. 
   
   ...NRN NV EWD INTO S-CENTRAL WY...
   BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
   THE MTNS OF S-CENTRAL WY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WLY SURFACE WINDS OF
   15-25 MPH ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER
   THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM 10-20
   PERCENT. NOAA/CPC DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT AND PALMER INDEX VALUES
   SUGGEST AREAS OF DRY FUELS IN THIS REGION...HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS
   ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT
   BE MET THIS PERIOD.  
   
   ...SWRN CONUS...
   LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS /AT OR BELOW 15 MPH/ DRIVEN BY
   LOCAL MOUNTAIN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS MOST OF
   THE SWRN U.S. BENEATH STRONG 500MB RIDGE. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
   YIELD EXTREMELY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 PERCENT
   OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND INTERIOR VALLEYS/BASINS OF NM/AZ/SRN
   CA. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID FOR 07/00Z INDICATE STEEP...NEARLY
   DRY ADIABATIC LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX
   VALUES OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PLUME
   DOMINATED FIRE THREAT WITH ANY ONGOING WILDFIRE ACTIVITY BURNING
   IN/NEAR HEAVIER FUEL LOADINGS. SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS
   OVER FAR SERN AZ AND SWRN NM FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL
   RESULT IN ISOLATED COVERAGE LIMITING OVERALL THREAT OF DRY
   LIGHTNING/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/06/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 060922
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   423 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 071200-081200
     
   ***EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL/SRN UT AND WRN
   CO***
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT
   BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ETA AND AVN ARE
   CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG...BROAD...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL
   GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN FROM THE WEST AND SW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
   AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE DRY FUELS
   EXIST. SWLY 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL
   UT/WRN CO DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL
   PROPAGATE SLOWLY SEWD TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN EWD INTO
   CENTRAL WY AT 08/00Z. 
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - CENTRAL/SRN UT AND WRN
   CO
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: WINDY / EXTREMELY DRY FUELS / EXTREMELY LOW RH
   VALUES
   
   SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VERY DRY LOW-MID LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
   STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES FROM THE
   SURFACE UP THROUGH 500MB...LEADING TO HIGH HAINES INDEX VALUES
   WHILE INCREASING VERTICAL MIXING/POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE
   WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREMELY
   LOW RH VALUES...FROM 5-15 PERCENT...WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
   LIKELY. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY LOW
   DAYTIME RH AND VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS PER NOAA/CPC DROUGHT
   MONITOR AND FOREST SERVICE WFAS PAGE SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT FIRE
   WEATHER PROBLEM BEGINNING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - SURROUNDING AREA 1...INCLUDING NV
   EXCEPT SRN SECTIONS...REMAINDER OF UT...SWRN/S-CENTRAL WY...CENTRAL
   CO...NRN NM...AND NRN AZ...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: BREEZY / EXTREMELY DRY FUELS / VERY LOW RH
   VALUES / WIND SHIFT OVER NRN AND CENTRAL NV
   
   SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA...CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   GREAT BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. WLY TO
   SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
   ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. AFTER 08/00Z...THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
   NWRN GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY MOVE SWD RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO
   NLY AT 10-15 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NV DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 06/06/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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