Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150926
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (CNTRL AZ/NW NM)...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NW CO)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE LOCATED OVER NRN NY
   BY 16/0000Z. UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
   PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST BY 16/1200Z. MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE ERN UPPER LOW...WITH 40-50 KT AT 500MB OVER THE NRN PLAINS
   AND OH VALLEY REGION. STRONG SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/IL/IN/OH/MI WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT RH VALUES
   WILL BE IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. MINOR IMPULSES WILL ROTATE
   AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST...WHICH MAY HELP ISOLATED DRY
   TSTMS DEVELOP. STRONG SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT IN THE SW AND
   FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALONG WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES AND EXTREME
   DROUGHT CONDITIONS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (CNTRL AZ/NW NM)...
    
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   40 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 5-10 PERCENT / EXTREME LONG TERM
   DROUGHT / TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...
   
   THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   SUNDAY...WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. STRONG W/SW SFC WINDS
   OF 20-30 MPH WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
   WILL ALSO CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH LOW RH VALUES. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (NW CO)...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   30 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT / MODERATE TO EXTREME LONG
   TERM DROUGHT / ISOLATED DRY TSTMS...
   
   MINOR IMPULSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE
   NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A 90-110 KT JET STREAK. SFC WINDS SHOULD BE AT
   LEAST 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR ANY
   TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. RH VALUES WEST OF THE CNTRL CO MTNS WILL RANGE
   FROM 10-15 PERCENT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY TSTMS IN NW CO AND POSSIBLY SW
   WY. 
   
   ...FAR WEST TX...
   
   STRONG SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WITH 20-
   30 SUSTAINED WINDS. HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
   TX/NM BORDER IN FAR WEST TX. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
   PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OCCURRED ON
   FRIDAY ACROSS SMALL PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
   RECEIVED LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.
   
   ...ERN CO/ERN NM...
   
   NUMEROUS LARGE FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL
   MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN ERN CO...AND
   S/SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NM. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RANGE FROM
   10-20 MPH...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
   MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN TOO HIGH / 25-35 PERCENT / TO WARRANT
   A CRITICAL FIRE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
   AGAIN POSSIBLE...AND ANY RAIN WILL HELP WITH WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION
   EFFORTS. 
    
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151032
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ERN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER ERN GREAT
   LAKES REGION AT 16/1200Z. UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO
   MOVE EAST...AS CLOSED PACIFIC LOW MOVES NEAR THE WA COAST BY
   17/1200Z. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
   OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. A NRN SHORTWAVE WILL EXTEND FROM NE MN TO
   CNTRL NE BY 17/0000Z. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
   FEATURE AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 
   
   ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN TX AT 16/1200Z...AND
   WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A
   STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM AND MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.  
   
   ...SRN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ...
   MODERATE TO SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THIS
   AREA...AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5-10 PERCENT ON
   SUNDAY. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
   TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   STRONGEST IN SRN CA WITH 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND RH VALUES
   NEAR 10 PERCENT. WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY
   17/0000Z BUT MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE WEAK.
   
   ...NRN NM/SW CO...
   SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN CO BY 16/1800Z...WITH A
   DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHWEST NM. RH VALUES
   WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 PERCENT IN ERN CO...TO 5-15 PERCENT IN NW NM.
   WINDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 10-20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. NUMEROUS FIRES
   CONTINUE ACROSS CO AND NM...SO IF WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER
   THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL
   AREA FOR SUNDAY.  
     
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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