Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161059
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (ERN AZ/WRN NM)...
    
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...AS CLOSED
   UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS
   SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W/NWLY FLOW...WHICH WILL MAINLY
   RESULT IN SFC TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFTS. RELATIVELY WEAK
   MID LEVEL FLOW / 15 TO 30 KTS / SHOULD KEEP SFC WINDS IN THE 10-20
   MPH RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES...WHERE FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE THE MOST SEVERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE NERN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT HIGH
   SFC MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS WELL. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (ERN AZ/WRN NM)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / MINIMUM RH VALUES 5-15 PERCENT / SUSTAINED
   SFC WINDS 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH / EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT
   / TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/100S...  
   
   ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS SATURDAY...FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS
   ANALYZED AT 16/0700Z ACROSS SRN NV...WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL
   NM. RH VALUES IN ERN NM WILL RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT...WHILE RH
   VALUES IN WRN NM/ERN AZ WILL FALL INTO THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE BY
   16/2100Z. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ENHANCING
   SURFACE WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-20
   MPH...BUT FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
   OUTLOOK AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXTREME DROUGHT
   CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN ANTICIPATED. 
   
   ...OTHER AREAS...
   
   ...SRN ID/NV...
   
   MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 17/1200Z TO 15-20 KTS...IN
   RESPONSE TO APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL
   FALL INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS SRN ID AND 10-15 PERCENT
   ACROSS NV. HOWEVER SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH ARE NOT
   EXPECTED ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA.
   
   ...SRN GA...
   SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THIS
   AREA. AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 25-35 PERCENT
   WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
   WEAK SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH
   RANGE.
     
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161056
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 171200-181200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN ID/WRN WY)...
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (EXTREME NE AZ/NWRN NM/SRN
   CO)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   PACIFIC LOW WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFF THE BC COAST AT 17/1200Z...AND
   ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
   MONDAY. MEANWHILE LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM
   BY 17/1800Z...RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW / 20-30 KT/ IN THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   INITIATE IN THE ERN PLAINS OF CO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
   ANOTHER COMPLEX OF TSTMS MAY AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN
   THE EAST...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST WITH
   SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN ID/WRN WY)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH / RH VALUES 15-
   25 PERCENT / MODERATE TO SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AS 70-90 KT JET MAX MOVES INTO THE
   REGION BY 18/0000Z. ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...IT
   MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
   SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWER IN WRN
   WY THAN IN SRN ID...BUT THE INCREASING WINDS WILL WORSEN FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (EXTREME NE AZ/NWRN NM/SRN CO)...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
   20 MPH / EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...  
   
   THIS REGION CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM LONG TERM DROUGHT...AND THE
   UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT AND DRY
   WEATHER. THE DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WILL CAUSE SFC
   WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 18/0000Z. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP
   ACROSS ERN CO/ERN NM...AND RH VALUES ACROSS EXTREME SERN CO AND
   NERN NM WILL BE IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE AND NOT BE INCLUDED IN
   THE OUTLOOK AREA. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD INCREASE ON
   MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX AND STRENGTHENING
   PRESSURE GRADIENT.  
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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