Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 191007
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 191200-201200...CORRECTED
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY TSTMS OVER ERN
UT/NW CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 19/0930Z SHOWED MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
ALONG A LINE FROM WRN ND/SE MT/WRN WY/NE UT/SRN CA. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST ACROSS WRN MT/ID WAS ALSO NOTED. A SFC DRYLINE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 20/1200Z. UPPER TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST...EXTENDING FROM ERN NC TO AL BY 20/0000Z. SFC COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY...BUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS THROUGH MN/NE. THE FRONT WILL BE
SLOWER THROUGH THE CNTRL CO MTNS...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SE UT
THROUGH ERN CO BY 20/0000Z. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT E/SE
FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN CO/NE NM/WRN PORTIONS OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE)...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES 3-8 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG
TERM DROUGHT / TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S...
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL POSE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT
TODAY...AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS FIRES CONTINUE PARTICULARLY OVER
SE CO AND NE NM...AND GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL NOT HELP THE ALREADY
CRITICAL SITUATION. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN ERN NM...WHERE
DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE GREATER. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE IN
THE EAST...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 5 PERCENT POSSIBLE IN NM.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (ERN UT/NW CO)
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SCATTERED DRY TSTMS / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG
TERM DROUGHT / MINIMUM RH VALUES 10 TO 20 PERCENT...
AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8-10 C/KM BY
AFTERNOON...AND PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 0.5. IN ADDITION
CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY 19/2100Z...WHICH INDICATES DRY TSTM POTENTIAL FOR
THIS REGION. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MESOETA FORECASTING THE FRONT TO
BE ALONG AN INTERSTATE 70 LINE BY 19/2100Z. THE FRONT MAY MAKE
BETTER PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDER MAY
EXIST ACROSS SERN UT/SW CO AS WELL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY
CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA FOR SO LONG...ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE NEW FIRES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND CERTAINLY
NOT ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE FIRE THREAT.
...FAR WEST TX...
GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-35 MPH WERE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS. RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA IS SUFFERING FROM SEVERE TO
EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...AND THE STRONG WINDS CERTAINLY SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES TODAY.
..TAYLOR.. 06/19/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 191115
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 201200-211200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN NV/SERN CA/NWRN AZ/EXTREME
SW UT)...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM)...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST IN THE SERN U.S. THROUGH 21/0000Z...AS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE IN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER HUDSON BAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AT 21/0000Z. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH 21/1200Z...WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
ID TO NRN CA BY 21/1200Z. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
INCREASING SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN NV/SERN CA/NWRN AZ/EXTREME
SW UT)...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH / MINIMUM RH
VALUES 5 TO 15 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT /
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/100S...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE LONG
TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SFC WINDS WILL
WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM)
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH / MINIMUM RH
VALUES 10-20 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...
A SFC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AT 20/1200Z.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH 21/0000Z. LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RH
VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS ERN NM/SE CO/W TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE GOOD. STRONG SFC WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL AGGRAVATE
THE CURRENT FIRE SUPPRESSION SITUATION.
..TAYLOR.. 06/19/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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