Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 191007
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 191200-201200...CORRECTED
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY TSTMS OVER ERN
   UT/NW CO...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SFC ANALYSIS AT 19/0930Z SHOWED MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
   ALONG A LINE FROM WRN ND/SE MT/WRN WY/NE UT/SRN CA. A SHORTWAVE
   MOVING EAST ACROSS WRN MT/ID WAS ALSO NOTED. A SFC DRYLINE WAS
   LOCATED ACROSS ERN NM. 
   
   UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
   EAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW PRESSURE
   WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ONTARIO BY 20/1200Z. UPPER TROUGH
   IN THE EASTERN STATES WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
   COAST...EXTENDING FROM ERN NC TO AL BY 20/0000Z. SFC COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY...BUT THE NRN PORTION OF
   THE FRONT WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS THROUGH MN/NE. THE FRONT WILL BE
   SLOWER THROUGH THE CNTRL CO MTNS...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM SE UT
   THROUGH ERN CO BY 20/0000Z. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED DRY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
   MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...AND GUSTY
   SOUTH WINDS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. SFC
   HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT E/SE
   FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EAST.   
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SERN CO/NE NM/WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLE)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   35 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES 3-8 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG
   TERM DROUGHT / TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S...
   
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL POSE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT
   TODAY...AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS FIRES CONTINUE PARTICULARLY OVER
   SE CO AND NE NM...AND GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL NOT HELP THE ALREADY
   CRITICAL SITUATION. RH VALUES WILL BE LOWEST IN ERN NM...WHERE
   DEWPOINTS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
   EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
   STRONGER IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT MOISTURE WILL
   ALSO BE GREATER. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON...SO RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE IN
   THE EAST...WITH RH VALUES BELOW 5 PERCENT POSSIBLE IN NM.
      
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (ERN UT/NW CO)
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SCATTERED DRY TSTMS / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG
   TERM DROUGHT / MINIMUM RH VALUES 10 TO 20 PERCENT...
   
   AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8-10 C/KM BY
   AFTERNOON...AND PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 0.5. IN ADDITION
   CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 200 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   OUTLOOK AREA BY 19/2100Z...WHICH INDICATES DRY TSTM POTENTIAL FOR
   THIS REGION. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MESOETA FORECASTING THE FRONT TO
   BE ALONG AN INTERSTATE 70 LINE BY 19/2100Z. THE FRONT MAY MAKE
   BETTER PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE THREAT FOR DRY THUNDER MAY
   EXIST ACROSS SERN UT/SW CO AS WELL. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY
   CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PLAGUED THE AREA FOR SO LONG...ANY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES COULD POTENTIALLY CREATE NEW FIRES ACROSS THE REGION. ANY
   RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TSTMS WOULD BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND CERTAINLY
   NOT ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE FIRE THREAT. 
   
   ...FAR WEST TX...
   GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY. WIND GUSTS
   BETWEEN 30-35 MPH WERE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
   TEXAS. RH VALUES MAY BE MARGINAL...DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE
   DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA IS SUFFERING FROM SEVERE TO
   EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...AND THE STRONG WINDS CERTAINLY SUGGEST
   THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES TODAY. 
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/19/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
        
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 191115
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 201200-211200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN NV/SERN CA/NWRN AZ/EXTREME
   SW UT)...
    
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM)...
    
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST IN THE SERN U.S. THROUGH 21/0000Z...AS
   ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW BECOMES CUTOFF AND SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
   CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE IN ONTARIO AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER HUDSON BAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
   BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
   LOCATED JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AT 21/0000Z. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   STRENGTHEN THROUGH 21/1200Z...WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
   FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN STATES. PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
   ID TO NRN CA BY 21/1200Z. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE
   INCREASING SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND DIGGING UPPER
   TROUGH. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN NV/SERN CA/NWRN AZ/EXTREME
   SW UT)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 5 TO 15 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT /
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/100S...
   
   AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...SURFACE WINDS WILL
   INCREASE FROM THE S/SW AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE LONG
   TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...STRONG SFC WINDS WILL
   WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (SCNTRL CO/NCNTRL NM)
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: / SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 10-20 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   A SFC BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AT 20/1200Z.
   INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION THROUGH 21/0000Z. LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST
   ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RH
   VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS ERN NM/SE CO/W TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE
   RETURN WILL BE GOOD. STRONG SFC WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL AGGRAVATE
   THE CURRENT FIRE SUPPRESSION SITUATION.  
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/19/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home