Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 200905
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 201200-211200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SE CA / SRN/ERN NV / WRN UT /
   WRN AZ...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SE CO / NE NM / EXTREME WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE )
    
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   SFC ANALYSIS AT 20/0800Z SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   CNTRL MN TO NW KS THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF CO AND UT. AN AREA OF
   SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHEAST CO WITH A DRYLINE
   THROUGH ERN NM. AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING INTO ONTARIO...WHILE
   ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED APPROACHING THE WA/OR COAST PER
   THE LATEST EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
   
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF WEST COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AZ/NM/UT
   THROUGH 21/1200Z. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE SRN
   PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST BY 21/0000Z. IN THE SOUTHEAST...A CLOSED
   UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST FLOW ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. 
   
   THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES
   CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 100S TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
   STRONG SRLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS
   INCREASING SW/W WINDS IN THE WEST...AND THESE STRONG WINDS WILL
   WORSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SE CA / SRN/ERN NV / WRN UT / 
   WRN AZ)...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 10-20 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT /
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S/100S...
   
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SW WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 MPH IN
   THE ERN DESERTS OF CA AND MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHER GUSTS TO
   35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
   TO CREATE FIRE WEATHER DIFFICULTIES IN SRN CA...BUT RH VALUES NEAR
   THE COAST WILL BE HIGH. NUMEROUS FIRES CONTINUE IN SRN CA...AND
   INCREASING WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   DAYS...WHICH WILL CREATE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (SE CO / NE NM / EXTREME WRN
   PORTIONS OF TX/OK PANHANDLE )
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 20-30 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 10-20 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
   WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH THE
   STRONGEST WINDS TOWARD THE NRN PART OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SEVERAL
   FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS NE NM AND SE CO. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   HIGHER TODAY IN SE NM AND THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S IN THIS REGION. STRONG UPSLOPE
   FLOW WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN PLAINS
   OF CO AND NM...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS...DRY
   TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. 
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE TOO HIGH / 30 TO 50 PERCENT / TO WARRANT
   AN OUTLOOK...STRONG SFC WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGHER
   GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AND THE THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES WILL INCREASE BY
   AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM THE EFFECTS OF
   MODERATE TO SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT. 
   
   ...NRN UT/NW CO/SW WY/SRN ID...
   THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL UT/CO THIS MORNING
   IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
   AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG 
   THE SRN EDGE OF THE FRONT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
   THE BEST CHANCE FOR DRY TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NE NV/SRN
   ID/NRN UT/EXTREME SW WY/NW CO. COVERAGE OF DRY TSTMS SHOULD BE
   ISOLATED...BUT LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY IS HIGH ACROSS THE
   AREA DUE TO THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ANY LIGHTNING
   STRIKES MAY START NEW FIRES...AND TSTM WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE A
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.  
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/20/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201030
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 211200-221200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SE CA / SRN NV / NRN/CNTRL 
   AZ / EXTREME NW NM / SRN/ERN UT / WRN CO)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   WRN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AT THE START
   OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO BAJA
   BY 22/0000Z. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OH VALLEY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER SRN ID AND MOVE INTO WRN
   SD BY 22/1200Z...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NV/UT/WY. SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY. 
   
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE GREATLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION AND NV/SRN CA...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
   GIVEN THE EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH PERSIST IN
   THIS REGION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WORSEN
   ACROSS THE AREA. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SE CA / SRN NV / NRN/CNTRL AZ /
   EXTREME NW NM / SRN/ERN UT / WRN CO)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED SFC WINDS 15-25 MPH / MINIMUM RH
   VALUES 10-20 PERCENT / SEVERE TO EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   WINDS AT THE SFC WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH BY FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON...AS A SFC BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS THROUGH NV/SRN
   CA. HIGHER GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE THERMAL
   RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED OVER CO/NM...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
   ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN CA/NRN NV. THE VERY
   WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. NUMEROUS
   FIRES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY
   WILL AGGRAVATE FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. 
    
   ...OTHER AREAS...
   
   ...SRN ID/WRN WY/NRN NV/NRN UT...
   SFC WINDS IN THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SFC
   BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS ERN
   MT/ERN WY AND IN THE NRN AND WRN HIGH PLAINS...AND RAIN IS EXPECTED
   WITH ANY STORMS WHICH FORM HERE. FARTHER SOUTH...PW VALUES ARE
   BELOW 0.5 AND CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 250-500 J/KG WITH STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES. TSTMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A CAP
   INITIALLY...AND THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS SRN
   ID/NRN UT. GIVEN THE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ANY CHANCE FOR
   DRY TSTMS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOKS. 
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/20/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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