Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 210941
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 211200-221200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN NV / AZ / UT / WRN...SWRN
   CO / WRN...NWRN NM)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   
   AS PARTS OF GA AND FL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY DUE TO
   NEARBY TROPICAL LOW...GREAT BASIN/WRN ROCKIES MID-LVL RIDGE WILL
   BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN. WEST COAST TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE FROM
   CA/NV BORDER EWD TO THE WASATCH RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
   WHILE RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE OHIO
   RIVER VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED
   OUT WEST AS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   WASATCH/WRN ROCKIES THIS PERIOD. 
   
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN NV / AZ / UT / WRN...SWRN CO
   / WRN...NWRN NM)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / HOT
   TEMPERATURES / EXTREME - EXCEPTIONAL LONG RANGE DROUGHT / ISOLATED
   DRY TSTMS / HIGH HAINES INDICES 
   
   AS WRN U.S. TROUGH TRANSLATES NEWD TODAY THRU THE SCNTRL GREAT
   BASIN...A SWATH OF STRONG SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
   ACROSS A LARGE AREA. BY 22/00Z...ETA MODEL DEPICTS 18KFT WIND
   MAXIMA FROM THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN ERN CA/WRN AZ..ENEWD THRU
   NCNTRL AZ INTO ERN UT/WRN CO. GIVEN 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
   8-9 C/KM...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY
   MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC AND YIELDING SUSTAINED VALUES FROM 15-35 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 5-20
   PERCENT IN THE CRITICAL AREA WHILE AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGHS WILL
   RISE FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S IN ELEVATED AREAS TO THE MID-UPPER 90S
   IN DESERT/LOWLAND REGIONS. WITH AFOREMENTIONED LAPSE RATES AND
   FORECAST 5-6 HAINES VALUES...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
   UNSTABLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SOME ISOLATED DRY
   TSTMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED...MAINLY IN SERN UT...SWRN/WCNTRL CO...AS
   WELL AS IN PARTS OF NRN/NCNTRL NM AND NWRN AZ. AREAS EAST OF THE
   CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD EXPERIENCE TSTMS THAT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
   SOME RAINFALL...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT IN
   THESE AREAS. THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIKELY BE THE RECIPIENT
   OF THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WITH POOR RH
   RECOVERY EXPECTED REGIONWIDE.    
   
   ...INLAND DESERTS OF SRN CA...
   AS TROUGH TRANSLATES NORTH OF DESERT PARTS OF SRN CA...WLY/SWLY
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES FROM 15-30 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TO BETWEEN 90-
   105 DEGREES...AND WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL ONGOING FIRES IN THE
   REGION...SOME CONCERN IS WARRANTED GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASING AND
   SHIFTING WIND REGIME. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 06/21/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211012
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 221200-231200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   
   WRN ROCKIES TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN THRU THE DAY
   TWO PERIOD AS IT TRANSLATES FROM THE WASATCH/FOUR CORNERS
   REGION...NEWD TO THE NRN PLAINS BY 23/12Z. HENCE...STRONGER WINDS
   FROM THE DAY ONE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH
   WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...GULF COASTAL AREA LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE WNWWD
   INTO LA BY SUN MRNG. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON IN THE
   OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WITH WARM AND
   DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 
     
   ...NCNTRL NM...
   MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY FROM
   THE ERN NM PLAINS REGION NNWWD INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS OF
   NRN NM/SRN CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL STEEP LAPSE RATES...WITH
   HIGH CLOUD BASES...LOW PW VALUES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS NEWER
   MODEL DATA SHOULD GIVE MORE INSIGHT INTO THIS POSSIBILITY. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 06/21/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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