Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300900
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 301200-011200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - SRN AND ERN UT...WRN
   CO...EXTREME S CENTRAL WY...NRN AND ERN AZ...NWRN NM...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ZONAL JET ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE
   COUNTRY...WITH WEAK FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.  WLY FLOW ALOFT
   UNDERNEATH JET STREAM WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WA AND
   MT.  UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  MOISTURE LEVELS E OF THE ROCKIES
   WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA # 1 - SRN AND ERN UT...WRN
   CO...EXTREME S CENTRAL WY...NRN AND ERN AZ...NWRN NM...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  HIGH POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES  
   
   A VERY HOT AND DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND
   LIGHT WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE PLUME DOMINATION POTENTIAL.  DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS AT 700 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-32
   C...WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD OF 21 C FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX. 
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AS WELL...CREATING AN UNSTABLE
   ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
   COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A DECREASE IN POTENTIAL OVER NRN UT...BUT
   REALLY TOO CLOSE TO CALL OVER THE UINTA MTNS GIVEN ONGOING FIRES SO
   WILL INCLUDE THEM IN CRITICAL.  WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
   OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY...WITH SPEEDS
   AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 MPH.  ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE OVER NM INTO SRN CO AS WELL.   
   
   ...SRN ID...WRN WY...WRN MT...
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS TODAY.  WLY
   JET ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH OVER WRN MT...BUT RH
   WILL BE MARGINAL AT 20-30 PERCENT.  WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
   OVER ID AND WY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED...WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS.  RH WILL BE LOW AT 15-20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES
   REACH THE 90S F IN SRN ID AND CENTRAL WY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/30/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300954
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 011200-021200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - MUCH OF UT...WRN CO...NRN
   AZ...NWRN NM...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM DAY 1...AS RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S.
   HOLDS...AND FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES.  FIRE
   CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED LARGELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA # 1 - MUCH OF UT...WRN CO...NRN
   AZ...NWRN NM...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
   
   CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ON SUNDAY...WITH A
   CONTINUATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERY DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS
   ALOFT...PROVIDING FAVORABLE PLUME DOMINATION CONDITIONS.  ONE
   FACTOR WILL BE THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...AND TO
   WHAT EXTENT THAT BRINGS HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD
   DECREASE THE DANGER SOMEWHAT.  ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER MUCH OF WRN NM INTO SRN AND CENTRAL CO.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA AS MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE INCREASES.  OVERALL CONCENTRATION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER.  ANY STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE DRY WITH
   EXTREMELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.
   
   ...ID...MT...WY...
   WLY FLOW ALOFT AND A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   KEEP AFTERNOON NWLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH THE
   HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS WRN MT.  RH WILL BE LOWEST OVER SRN ID AND
   WY...WITH VALUES NEARING 15 PERCENT...WHILE FURTHER N INTO MT
   VALUES WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 PERCENT.  
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/30/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home