Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 300900
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 301200-011200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - SRN AND ERN UT...WRN
CO...EXTREME S CENTRAL WY...NRN AND ERN AZ...NWRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE ZONAL JET ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH WEAK FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. WLY FLOW ALOFT
UNDERNEATH JET STREAM WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER WA AND
MT. UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS E OF THE ROCKIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA # 1 - SRN AND ERN UT...WRN
CO...EXTREME S CENTRAL WY...NRN AND ERN AZ...NWRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HIGH POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
A VERY HOT AND DRY AIRMASS COUPLED WITH EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL MAXIMIZE PLUME DOMINATION POTENTIAL. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT 700 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 25-32
C...WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD OF 21 C FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX.
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AS WELL...CREATING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A DECREASE IN POTENTIAL OVER NRN UT...BUT
REALLY TOO CLOSE TO CALL OVER THE UINTA MTNS GIVEN ONGOING FIRES SO
WILL INCLUDE THEM IN CRITICAL. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS DAY...WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 MPH. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER NM INTO SRN CO AS WELL.
...SRN ID...WRN WY...WRN MT...
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS TODAY. WLY
JET ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH OVER WRN MT...BUT RH
WILL BE MARGINAL AT 20-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
OVER ID AND WY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RH WILL BE LOW AT 15-20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES
REACH THE 90S F IN SRN ID AND CENTRAL WY.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300954
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 011200-021200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - MUCH OF UT...WRN CO...NRN
AZ...NWRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM DAY 1...AS RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S.
HOLDS...AND FLOW REMAINS ZONAL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE FOCUSED LARGELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA # 1 - MUCH OF UT...WRN CO...NRN
AZ...NWRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: POTENTIAL FOR PLUME DOMINATED FIRES
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ON SUNDAY...WITH A
CONTINUATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...VERY DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...PROVIDING FAVORABLE PLUME DOMINATION CONDITIONS. ONE
FACTOR WILL BE THE INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...AND TO
WHAT EXTENT THAT BRINGS HIGH CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA...WHICH WOULD
DECREASE THE DANGER SOMEWHAT. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER MUCH OF WRN NM INTO SRN AND CENTRAL CO.
...SRN CA...
A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. OVERALL CONCENTRATION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS HOWEVER. ANY STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE DRY WITH
EXTREMELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.
...ID...MT...WY...
WLY FLOW ALOFT AND A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON NWLY WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15-20 MPH RANGE...WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS WRN MT. RH WILL BE LOWEST OVER SRN ID AND
WY...WITH VALUES NEARING 15 PERCENT...WHILE FURTHER N INTO MT
VALUES WILL BE MORE LIKE 20 PERCENT.
..JEWELL.. 06/30/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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