Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040813
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT THU JUL 04 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NWRN U.S. WILL EJECT A SHORTWAVE EWD INTO
   MT AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
   WRN CO AND WRN NM AS MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A
   WEAKENING UPPER LOW.  DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN
   BY DAYS END.
     
   ...BLACK HILLS INTO SRN WY...
   IT WILL BE HOT TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY EVENING.  INFLUENCE OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH A
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER NRN WY INTO WRN SD WILL ALLOW
   STORMS TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MINIMUM RH WILL BE LOW
   AT 20-30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE 90S F.  PRECIPITABLE
   WATER VALUES NEAR 1 INCH AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST STORMS
   SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY WET...BUT THEY COULD BE DRY ESPECIALLY DURING
   PEAK HEATING HOURS...BEFORE STORMS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED WITH COOL
   AND MOIST OUTFLOW POOL.  IF THIS OCCURS...WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS
   WOULD BE LIKELY IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING.  ALSO...THE SURFACE LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME...WITH A WIND SHIFT
   TO NWLY BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...OVER SERN MT AND NRN WY...BUT RH
   LEVELS WILL HAVE RECOVERED BY THAT TIME.  
   
   ...GREAT BASIN / FOUR CORNERS STATES...
   RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NRN AZ WILL HELP TO
   INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NERN AZ INTO WRN NM...WRN
   CO...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN UT.  STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO BE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY.  DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS WILL
   FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE RAIN...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WETTING
   RAINS...ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE QUITE SLOW DUE TO
   LIGHT UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/04/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040838
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT THU JUL 04 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL BUILD NWD
   DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE NW AND NE CORNERS OF THE NATION REMAIN
   UNDER UPPER TROUGHS.  ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN CO...WY...AND
   NM.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...SHIFTING
   WINDS AND PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  IT WILL BE HOT AND
   DRY OVER THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN...NWD INTO SRN ID.
     
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF MT AND INTO ERN WY AND THE WRN
   DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY EVENING.  WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SLY TO
   NWLY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTY.  RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
   TO GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY WITH MORNING
   FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/04/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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