Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050804
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   300 AM CDT FRI JUL 05 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
     
   MOST OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
   TODAY.  ASSOCIATED FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL U.S. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD.  STRENGTHENING
   SWLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE PERIPHERY HOWEVER...SHOULD
   CONTRIBUTE TO A RECORD-BREAKING HOT AND DRY AIR MASS.  
   
   ...WRN CO/ERN UT/WRN WY...
   
   SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
   UPPER RIDGE.  THIS...COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MAY
   PROVIDE A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE REGION.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AROUND 9 C/KM COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A DRY
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER /AS NOTED PER INVERTED-V POINT ETA FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS/ SHOULD ALLOW DRY STORMS TO DEVELOP.  ANY THAT
   DO...SHOULD STAY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
   
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   
   A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OUT OF MT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE
   END OF THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE A
   10-15 MPH WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NW.  ALTHOUGH
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BEHIND THE
   FRONT...RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25-35 PERCENT.  LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE SHOULD DRY OUT QUICKLY AS A RESULT.
   
   ..CUPO.. 07/05/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050913
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT FRI JUL 05 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
     
   UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS STRONGHOLD OVER MOST OF THE NATION
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  EXTREMELY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
   PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS TEMPERATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO REACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.
   SYNOPTICALLY...WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIURNAL TREND ACROSS THE DESERT TERRAIN AS WELL
   AS AROUND COLLAPSING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONGER.
   
   ...WRN WY/NRN UT...
   
   MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COUPLED
   WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
   CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  SHARP INVERTED-V MODEL SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS
   WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER AN EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD BASE AND
   WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THESE STORMS ARE
   MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING
   INCREASES.  ANY COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRAMATICALLY
   INCREASE SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE BASE.   
     
   ..CUPO.. 07/05/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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