Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080853
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT MON JUL 08 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 081200-091200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - SW MT/WRN WY/ERN ID/NRN UT...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
    
   BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
   CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HOT AND DRY. 
   RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT MID-
   LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...INCREASING THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  MEANWHILE...A POTENT
   UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD.  PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
   INCREASE AS A RESULT.  
    
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SW MT/WRN WY/ERN ID/NRN UT...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH/STRONG WINDS/HIGH FIRE
   DANGER/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
   
   AS ERN EDGE OF LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...60 KNOT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SHOULD
   TRANSLATE STRONG SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHOULD PASS THROUGH
   THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THIS WILL
   COUPLE MAXIMUM HEATING WITH STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE WEST
   BEHIND THE FRONT.  THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ANY MOISTURE
   THAT MAY HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...AS RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 PERCENT.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES C/KM AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR THE
   REGION SUGGEST AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  ALL OF THESE
   FACTORS COMBINED WITH A HIGH FIRE DANGER PROMPTS A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER AREA FOR THE REGION.  
   
   ...ERN AZ...
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL ELY FLOW INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION
   IN RESPONSE TO A FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN NM
   WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS ERN AZ DURING THE PERIOD.  HIGH INSOLATION
   AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9 DEGREES C/KM/...COUPLED WITH AN
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZATION.  DUE
   TO EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   FORECAST TO OCCUR.  PW VALUES...HOWEVER...ARE PROGGED AT
   APPROXIMATELY .75 INCH WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY THUNDER ACTIVITY.
   
   ..CUPO.. 07/08/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080913
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   415 AM CDT MON JUL 08 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 091200-101200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   
   MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
   WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REPOSITIONS ITSELF
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL REDUCE
   THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WHILE ALLOWING
   FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.   
     
   ...ERN AZ...
   
   NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS INVERTED-V
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A
   POSSIBILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF AZ DURING THE PERIOD.  AS UPPER
   HIGH ADVANCES NWD ACROSS SRN NV AND UT...ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE MID-LEVEL
   MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.  ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IS
   FORECAST GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE REGION.  MOISTURE
   ALOFT COUPLED WITH LARGE LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER CLASS
   WARRANT A MENTION...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   EVENT...PW VALUES EXCEEDING .75 INCH...AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE
   SURFACE /EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/...A CRITICAL
   OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED.      
   
   ..CUPO.. 07/08/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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