Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 080853
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT MON JUL 08 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 081200-091200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - SW MT/WRN WY/ERN ID/NRN UT...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HOT AND DRY.
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS A RESULT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SW MT/WRN WY/ERN ID/NRN UT...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: HOT TEMPERATURES/LOW RH/STRONG WINDS/HIGH FIRE
DANGER/UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
AS ERN EDGE OF LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...60 KNOT MID-LEVEL
FLOW...COMBINED WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS...SHOULD
TRANSLATE STRONG SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE SHOULD PASS THROUGH
THE REGION BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
COUPLE MAXIMUM HEATING WITH STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ANY MOISTURE
THAT MAY HAVE FALLEN DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...AS RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 PERCENT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF ABOUT 8 DEGREES C/KM AND HIGH HAINES INDICES FOR THE
REGION SUGGEST AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH A HIGH FIRE DANGER PROMPTS A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREA FOR THE REGION.
...ERN AZ...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL ELY FLOW INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE REGION
IN RESPONSE TO A FLATTENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN NM
WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS ERN AZ DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH INSOLATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9 DEGREES C/KM/...COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD AID IN ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZATION. DUE
TO EXTREMELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR. PW VALUES...HOWEVER...ARE PROGGED AT
APPROXIMATELY .75 INCH WHICH MAY LIMIT DRY THUNDER ACTIVITY.
..CUPO.. 07/08/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 080913
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
415 AM CDT MON JUL 08 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 091200-101200
...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REPOSITIONS ITSELF
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL REDUCE
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WHILE ALLOWING
FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES.
...ERN AZ...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD AS INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF AZ DURING THE PERIOD. AS UPPER
HIGH ADVANCES NWD ACROSS SRN NV AND UT...ELY FLOW ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC DESTABILIZATION IS
FORECAST GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THE REGION. MOISTURE
ALOFT COUPLED WITH LARGE LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER CLASS
WARRANT A MENTION...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
EVENT...PW VALUES EXCEEDING .75 INCH...AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE
SURFACE /EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/...A CRITICAL
OUTLOOK WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
..CUPO.. 07/08/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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