Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120849
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 121200-131200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NRN GREAT BASIN/PAC NW...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   STRONG UPPER RIDGE...CENTERED OVER THE ID AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SWD INTO UT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
   CLOSER TO THE PAC NW COAST. ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE PAC NW AND THE GREAT
   BASIN REGION. MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN/SIERRA
   NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND
   PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE RESULT WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAC NW/NRN GREAT BASIN. FARTHER SOUTH...
   MAINLY WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NM/AZ...SRN NV AND
   SERN CA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
   COUNTRY AS SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED
   PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - NERN CA/NWRN NV...CENTRAL AND ERN
   ORE AND FAR WRN ID...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS / VERY
   LOW RH READINGS OF 5-10 PERCENT / LONG TERM DROUGHT...
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST DAY INDICATED THAT MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE SURGE HAS MOVED NWD THROUGH NRN CA AND FAR SRN ORE...AHEAD
   OF VORTICITY CENTER OVER SRN CA.  CONTINUED SSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS
   WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTURE NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN ORE AND INTO
   SERN WA AND WRN/NRN ID DURING THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV AND CENTRAL/ERN
   ORE AND INTO FAR WRN ID AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER
   WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NRN CA BY 13/00Z. VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD
   LAYER LESS THAN 30 PERCENT WILL AID IN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
   TO REACH THE GROUND...PROVIDING FOR DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH
   STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE LIKELY TRANSITION TO WET
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CA/SCENTRAL ORE AFTER 13/00Z.
   
   ...MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST...
   WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THERMAL RIDGE
   WILL AID IN ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DRY RH READINGS FROM 5 TO 10
   PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POOR RH RECOVERY
   OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH
   HAINES INDEX...PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE
   WEAK SURFACE WINDS /LESS THAN 20 MPH/ GENERALLY DRIVEN BY LOCAL
   THERMALLY DRIVEN MTN/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120951
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT FRI JUL 12 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 131200-141200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN
   THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVES NEWD THROUGH THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/SWRN CANADA.
   ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ESPECIALLY OVER AZ AND
   ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
   EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD
   UPPER TROUGH...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS PRECLUDING ANY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...NRN GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EXPECT AN INCREASING MARINE PUSH TO AID IN
   STRENGTHENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL AID IN WLY
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO THE
   WEST OF THE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED FROM CENTRAL ID SWD INTO NERN
   NV. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING AND
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES WILL AID IN
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF ERN
   WA/NERN ORE EWD ACROSS NRN ID DURING THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
   FARTHER SOUTH FROM NRN NV NEWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL ID...NWRN WY AND
   SWRN MT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE AREAL
   COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICALLY
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE OF ANY CRITICAL AREAS
   AT THIS TIME.
    
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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