Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 150839
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2002
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 151200-161200
...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT ACROSS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
LOW RH READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE INTERIOR WEST NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
MEANWHILE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...A PAIR OF UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL
AID IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
/MODERATE RH READINGS. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN IN PLACE OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND AID IN INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW/MARINE PUSH AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WLY WINDS.
SCATTERED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WRN STATES AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTERS THAT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN NV WITH THE
OTHER CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SERN ORE INTO WCENTRAL MT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF NEWD MOVING CA VORTICITY CENTER WILL
AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
15/00Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS SERN
ORE/WRN ID AS SWLY MID LEVEL WIND COMPONENT STRENGTHENS...EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PROVIDE FOR A MIX
OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
FARTHER SOUTH...SECOND VORTICITY CENTER OVER SERN NV WILL MOVE NEWD
INTO NRN UT AND SWRN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 15/00Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.60 INCHES AT SLC.
EXPECT THESE VALUES TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD SLIGHTLY...BUT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND
13 KFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN THE WEAK
NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
SUBTLE VORTICITY CENTER MOVING ACROSS SERN CO WILL SHIFT SWWD
AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO SWRN CO DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAN JUANS/SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
DESPITE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FROM 0.60 TO 0.75 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF DRY AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM SRN ND SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB...AHEAD OF SURFACE
COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT CAN BE
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET
AXIS FROM WRN KS NWD INTO SCENTRAL ND WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HOUR
PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...BUT DURATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 07/15/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
NNNN
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 150947
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
500 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2002
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 161200-171200
...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. NO
OTHER AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.
...NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR PAC NW...
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE PAC NW COAST...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE CA COAST INTO
THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE MINORING OUT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN
GREAT BASIN...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM FROM SERN ORE NEWD INTO SERN WA/NRN AND CENTRAL ID DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION
INDICATE THAT INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT
ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS SERN WA/NRN ID
WOULD FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS ERN ORE AND CENTRAL/SRN ID...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
0.50 TO 0.60 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S
DAY ONE OUTLOOK AS THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WRN CO...SRN WY/ERN UT DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50
INCH WILL FAVOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE.
ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT.
..CROSBIE.. 07/15/02
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
NNNN
Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home