Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150839
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT ACROSS
   MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES/
   LOW RH READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE INTERIOR WEST NEWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
   MEANWHILE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...A PAIR OF UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL
   AID IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
   /MODERATE RH READINGS. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   DEEPEN IN PLACE OFF THE PAC NW COAST AND AID IN INCREASING ONSHORE
   FLOW/MARINE PUSH AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WLY WINDS.
   SCATTERED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   THE INTERIOR WRN STATES AROUND PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. 
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
   CENTERS THAT WILL AID IN ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN NV WITH THE
   OTHER CENTER LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CA. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM SERN ORE INTO WCENTRAL MT BY THIS
   AFTERNOON. MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
   INCREASING FORCING AHEAD OF NEWD MOVING CA VORTICITY CENTER WILL
   AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   15/00Z SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
   ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS SERN
   ORE/WRN ID AS SWLY MID LEVEL WIND COMPONENT STRENGTHENS...EXPECT
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   FROM 0.75 TO 1 INCH WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PROVIDE FOR A MIX
   OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...SECOND VORTICITY CENTER OVER SERN NV WILL MOVE NEWD
   INTO NRN UT AND SWRN WY THROUGH THE PERIOD. 15/00Z SOUNDINGS
   INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.60 INCHES AT SLC.
   EXPECT THESE VALUES TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD SLIGHTLY...BUT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND
   13 KFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
   STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED GIVEN THE WEAK
   NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL FORCING...THUS PRECLUDING A CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
   SUBTLE VORTICITY CENTER MOVING ACROSS SERN CO WILL SHIFT SWWD
   AROUND UPPER RIDGE INTO SWRN CO DURING THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED
   TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAN JUANS/SANGRE
   DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
   DESPITE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES FROM 0.60 TO 0.75 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF DRY AND WET
   THUNDERSTORMS. THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED.  
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES CAN
   BE EXPECTED FROM SRN ND SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL NEB...AHEAD OF SURFACE
   COLD FRONT. MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT CAN BE
   EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET
   AXIS FROM WRN KS NWD INTO SCENTRAL ND WILL OCCUR FOR A FEW HOUR
   PERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...BUT DURATION OF
   SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR A
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150947
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL MOST OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
   ACROSS THE NATION DURING THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET/DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST
   AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. DESPITE LOW RH READINGS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. NO
   OTHER AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   COUNTRY.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/INTERIOR PAC NW...
   AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE PAC NW COAST...AN EMBEDDED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE CA COAST INTO
   THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE MINORING OUT AS IT
   ENCOUNTERS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
   HOW MUCH RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
   WILL BE PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
   FORM FROM SERN ORE NEWD INTO SERN WA/NRN AND CENTRAL ID DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION
   INDICATE THAT INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT
   ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS SERN WA/NRN ID
   WOULD FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH
   ACROSS ERN ORE AND CENTRAL/SRN ID...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM
   0.50 TO 0.60 INCHES WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
   AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN TOMORROW/S
   DAY ONE OUTLOOK AS THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE...SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WRN CO...SRN WY/ERN UT DURING
   THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.50
   INCH WILL FAVOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE.
   ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/15/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home