Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 240912
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 241200-251200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE WA/WRN ID/NE OREGON FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
   SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
   NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN IMPULSES WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
   WRN STATES TODAY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN WA
   BY TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION MOVING ONSHORE BY
   AROUND 25/0600Z. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
   WA/OREGON/NRN CA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SECOND IMPULSE WILL MOVE
   AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION...TRACKING ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN NV BY 25/0000Z. AT THE
   SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TO BE LOCATED
   ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
   THROUGH THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SE WA/WRN ID/NE OREGON)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SCATTERED DRY TSTMS PRODUCING STRONG/ERRATIC
   WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL
   
   AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER
   TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN SCATTERED 
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS AND
   24/0000Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPOKANE AND BOISE INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF
   A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS IN EXCESS OF
   40 DEGREES. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   INCREASE AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF
   THE STORMS WILL BE DRY TSTMS...AS ANY RAIN WHICH FORMS WILL
   EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. RELATIVELY HIGH FIRE DANGER
   VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO ANY
   LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD WORSEN THE FIRE SITUATION. IN ADDITION TO
   THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT...GUSTY WINDS FROM TSTMS WILL ALSO BE
   LIKELY.  
   
   ...OTHER AREAS...
   
   ...NRN CA/NRN NV/SE OREGON/SW ID/NW UT...
   ISOLATED DRY TSTMS MAY FORM IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OREGON LATER
   TODAY WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED FORCING FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...MODEL
   FORECAST RH FIELDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME FORMING
   IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL OFFSET THE LACK
   OF MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY...SO IN AREAS
   WHERE TSTMS FORM...THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE DRY AT LEAST INITIALLY.
   COVERAGE OF DRY LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED SO AN OUTLOOK AREA
   WILL NOT BE ISSUED. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
   SHOULD ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON SO THAT TSTMS SHOULD BE WET ACROSS
   SRN UT/SRN NV/NRN AZ. 
   
   ...MT/WY...
   SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AREA TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED 10-20 MPH W/NW FLOW EXPECTED.
   OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10-20 PERCENT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
   80S/90S. ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY WRN WY/WRN
   MT AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/24/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241020
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT WED JUL 24 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 251200-261200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE SHORTWAVE AXIS EXTENDING
   FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA THROUGH NRN CA BY 26/0000Z. THE APPROACHING
   WRN STORM SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND SHIFT IT SOUTH
   AND EAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH MANITOBA/ONTARIO
   AND THE NRN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
   SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NRN MO/IL BY 26/0000Z.
   SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON THURSDAY...WHILE
   A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NEBRASKA/KS AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
   IN ERY WY/CO. 
     
   ...CNTRL WA...
   SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER STORM
   SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 25-35 MPH POSSIBLE BY
   AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8-15 PERCENT WITH
   MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. RECENT FIRE DANGER OBSERVATIONS
   ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CASCADE MTNS AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SE
   COLUMBIA BASIN. THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL AREA
   TOMORROW...IF IT APPEARS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 20
   MPH ACROSS A LARGE ENOUGH REGION. 
   
   ...OTHER AREAS...
   
   ...WRN NV/NE CA...
   SUSTAINED SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
   MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SFC WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-
   20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS FROM 25-30 MPH BY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH
   VALUES WILL DROP TO 8-15 PERCENT. THE AREA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
   LONG TERM DROUGHT...AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN ON
   THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASED WINDS. 
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/24/02   
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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