Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300936
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 301200-311200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (SRN MT)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO DIFFER LITTLE FROM PAST 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH
   CONTINUING STRONG ZONAL /WEST-EAST/ FLOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.
   THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE WILL BE THE SSEWD ADVANCEMENT OF A
   MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THRU THE NRN ROCKIES REGION ALONG WITH A
   SLIGHT COOLING TREND FOR THE PAC NW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF
   THE SSEWD ADVANCEMENT OF A BRITISH COLUMBIAN TROUGH/MID-LVL SPEED
   MAXIMUM THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AS A MID-UPPER LVL LOW INTENSIFIES AND
   ROTATES EWD THRU CNTRL CANADA. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
   CONTINUE TO RULE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE SCATTERED
   SHWRS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY AS WELL AS
   THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD/ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. MODELS HINT
   AT A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LVL MOISTURE MOVING EWD THRU THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN FROM THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA BY 31/12Z.
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (SRN MT)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SUSTAINED WLY COMPONENT WINDS / LOW RH
   VALUES / HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES / DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
   VICINITY / ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS
   
   AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SWLY WINDS WILL
   INCREASE AND BECOME SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-25 MPH WITH FREQUENT
   HIGHER GUSTS WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP FROM
   AROUND 15-25 PERCENT. GIVEN ENHANCED SWLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF
   BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM AROUND GGW WSWWD TO NEAR LWT BY
   31/00Z AND A 850MB THERMAL RIDGE...AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE
   HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. FCST SOUNDINGS
   REVEAL ADEQUATE INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ATTM...BELIEVE STORMS COULD
   INITIATE SOUTH OF LIVINGSTON IN GALLATIN NATIONAL FOREST AND SPREAD
   EWD THRU SRN MT AHEAD/ALONG APPROACHING SSEWD MOVING COLD FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY. WITH EXTREME LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LITTLE TO
   NO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...CRITICAL AREA DEEMED APPROPRIATE MAINLY
   FOR STRONG SUSTAINED WSWLY WINDS AND DRY TSTM LIKELIHOOD. 
   
   ...SWRN ORE/NWRN CA...
   ANOTHER DAY OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
   FOR THESE AREAS. ETA 24 HOUR CHANGE FIELDS AT 00Z INDICATE LITTLE
   TEMP/RH CHANGE...BUT REVEAL A 5-10 MPH GENERAL INCREASE IN WIND
   SPEEDS AREAWIDE. DESPITE ETA CHANGE FIELD OUTPUT...WITH LOWERING
   HEIGHTS DUE TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL
   BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY MOST AREAS / 0 - 5 DEGREES / AND RH VALUES
   A BIT HIGHER / 0 - 5 PERCENT /. THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF NLY
   COMPONENT SUSTAINED WINDS / GENERALLY 10-15 MPH / PRECLUDES A
   CRITICAL ISSUANCE. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/30/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301022
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 311200-011200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   FAST WLY FLOW WILL BE THE RULE ALONG THE NRN TIER AS CNTRL CANADIAN
   MID-UPPER LVL LOW ROTATES EWD INTO ERN MANITOBA...WHILE THE SRN
   STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE
   PLAINS OF MT/WRN DAKOTAS BEHIND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE WIND
   SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES ACROSS MUCH OF
   ORE/WA.
   
   ...MT/WY...
   AS STRONG CNTRL CANADIAN SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD DURING THE
   PERIOD...AN AXIS OF STRONGER MID-LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THESE
   AREAS. ETA MODEL FCST AT 01/00Z REVEALS 50-70 MID-LVL WLY FLOW FROM
   WRN MT EWD...THRU MT INTO ND WHILE ALSO REACHING SWD INTO MUCH OF
   CNTRL/NRN WY. DESPITE COOLER SURFACE HIGHS / 5-15 DEGREES / THAN ON
   TUESDAY...LOW RH VALUES / 15-30 PERCENT / AND AREAS OF STRONG WLY
   COMPONENT WINDS WILL AT LEAST YIELD MARGINAL FIRE WX CONCERNS THRU
   THE DAY TWO PERIOD. ATTM...THE AREAS OF STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM WCNTRL MT EWD THRU MUCH OF NRN MT INTO
   NERN/ERN MT AND FURTHER SOUTH FROM ERN ID THRU MUCH OF CNTRL/SCNTRL
   WY. GIVEN THE SEVERE-EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS AND RECENT WARM-HOT TEMPERATURES...THE
   CONTINUED WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD POSE SOME PROBLEMS DESPITE
   THE EXPECTED COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME ON WEDNESDAY. 
   
   ...GREAT BASIN/UT...
   ETA MODEL CONTINUES TO ADVECT LARGE SWATH OF MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
   BOTH THE DESERT SW AND THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ELIDA NORTH AND
   EAST INTO THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. GIVEN LOW BOUNDARY
   LAYER RH VALUES IN THESE AREAS RECENTLY ALONG WITH HIGH OR ABOVE
   FIRE DANGER READINGS...THERE APPEARS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF AT
   LEAST SOME ISOLATED DRY TSTMS IN THESE AREAS BY WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL OPT TO VIEW BOTH NEWER MODEL DATA/AMBIENT
   CONDITIONS FOR SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOK. 
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/30/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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