Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310857
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 311200-011200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (MT / WY)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   PRIMARY DAY ONE FEATURE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF THE RATHER FAST
   WLY FLOW THRU THE NRN TIER STATES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FASTER
   ZONAL FLOW AND A CNTRL CANADIAN MID-UPPER LVL LOW...A STRONG MID-
   LVL SPEED MAXIMUM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EWD FROM NRN ID/NWRN MT AT
   31/12Z TO NRN MN BY 01/12Z. THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
   THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS
   EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI WHILE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND BRISK
   WNWLY WINDS AFFECT AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE SWRN
   U.S. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD ALLOWING AMPLE
   MID-LVL MOISTURE TO ADVECT EWD FROM THE PACIFIC AND NNEWD FROM THE
   SONORA / ESPECIALLY FROM 01/00Z THRU 01/12Z / YIELDING AT LEAST AN
   ISOLATED DRY TSTM THREAT FROM THE NRN SIERRAS EWD INTO MUCH OF NV
   AND UT. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (MT / WY)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WNWLY SUSTAINED WINDS / LOW RH VALUES /
   WARM TEMPERATURES / SEVERE-EXTREME LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
   
   WV IMAGERY THIS MRNG DEPICTS STRONG MID-LVL SPEED MAX MOVING INTO
   NRN/NCNTRL WA AND THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWD THRU NRN
   MT/ND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION BY 01/12Z. THESE STRONGER
   WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE YIELDING SUSTAINED WNWLY
   WINDS FROM 15-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE LOW /10-25 PERCENT/ WHILE SURFACE HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-
   MID 70S FAR NW TO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S IN CNTRL/SCNTRL WY. GIVEN
   SEVERE-EXTREME LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND OBSERVED FIRE
   DANGER READINGS WHICH HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE RECENTLY...A
   CRITICAL AREA WILL BE ISSUED MAINLY FOR THE STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS
   AND LOW RH VALUES. 
   
   ...SWRN ORE/NWRN CA...
   THESE AREAS AGAIN TODAY WILL EXPERIENCE MARGINALLY STRONG WINDS
   ACCOMPANIED BY LOW RH VALUES. EXPECT 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS TO
   BECOME NWLY WHILE SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER
   BUT WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S VALLEY AREAS
   AND GENERALLY FROM 70-80 IN RIDGE AREAS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL
   RANGE FROM 10-35 IN RIDGE PROXIMITIES TO 25-45 IN VALLEY AREAS WITH
   POOR RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT INTO THU MRNG.  
   
   ...NRN SIERRAS...
   ENEWD TRANSLATION OF MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC REGION
   INTO THE NRN SIERRAS AND POSSIBLY THE SRN SHASTA SISKIYOUS COULD
   YIELD SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED DRY TSTMS. 
   
   
   
   
   ..NADEN.. 07/31/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311425
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT WED JUL 31 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 011200-021200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND ADVANCE INTO ONTARIO WHILE
   RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN NWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES AHEAD OF NEXT PAC NW SYSTEM. BOTH ETA/AVN INDICATING
   WEAKENING OF SWRN U.S. RIDGE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE PAC
   NW BY 02/00Z. THIS WEAKENING TREND ALONG WITH ENERGY EJECTING OUT
   OF MONSOONAL REGIME IN SONORAN REGION WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE
   COVERAGE OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORMS NWD INTO
   PARTS OF NV/UT/ID AND WY BY THE END OF THE DAY TWO PERIOD.
   ELSEWHERE...SWRN U.S. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO CNTRL PLAINS REGION
   WHILE MID-UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER IN GULF OF
   MEXICO AREA AROUND THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA. 
   
   ...NV/UT/WRN CO...
   MRNG WV IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF YUMA
   MOVING SLOWLY NNW TOWARDS SERN CA/SWRN AZ. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
   ROTATE NWD THRU LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY DURING THE PERIOD AND
   THEN SURGE ENELY INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN...UT...INTO SWRN/WRN CO
   BETWEEN 01/18Z AND 02/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PROVIDE AMPLE
   LIFT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS. GIVEN AN
   EXTREME-EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT IN MANY OF THESE AREAS AND HIGH OR
   ABOVE FIRE DANGER READINGS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A DRY TSTM
   EVENT WILL OCCUR. ATTM...PARTS OF ERN/SERN UT AND SWRN/WRN CO ARE
   THE FAVORED AREAS. WILL OPT TO VIEW TRENDS BEFORE CRITICAL
   ISSUANCE. 
   
   ...NRN CA/NWRN NV/ERN ORE/ID/WRN MT...
   AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE PAC NW BETWEEN 01/12Z TO
   01/18Z...SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL WARMING WILL OCCUR FROM THE SNAKE
   RIVER VALLEY REGION NWD INTO SWRN/WRN MT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   LOW-LVL THERMAL AXIS...MODELS INDICATE MID-LVL MOISTURE WILL
   INCREASE NNEWD FROM REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM NERN CA/NWRN
   NV INTO SWRN MT ENHANCING THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY
   TSTMS. WITH LITTLE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION FOR THESE AREAS...HIGH
   LIGHTNING IGNITION EFFICIENCY RATES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH OR ABOVE
   FIRE DANGER READINGS AND A MODERATE-SEVERE LONG TERM DROUGHT TO
   YIELD A DRY TSTM THREAT FOR THE DAY TWO PERIOD. WILL ATTEMPT TO
   PINPOINT THE THREAT AREAS MORE ACCURATELY IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE
   OUTLOOK. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 07/31/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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