Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 150708
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
   TODAY...WHERE WARM AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. 
   THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED A BIT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD
   TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CA COAST BY 00Z.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
   UPPER LOW THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON DRY STORM
   OVER THE SIERRA MTNS.  A BETTER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
   EXIST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF ERN AZ AND WRN NM.
     
   ...AZ/NM...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
   MTNS...AND INTO WRN NM THIS AFTERNOON.  A LIGHT SWLY WIND IN THE
   LOWER PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
   FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...SO
   LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN.
   
   ...CA INTO OREGON...
   CRITICALLY LOW RH OF 10-20 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.  THIS THERMAL TROUGH
   WILL EXTEND FROM ALONG THE SIERRA...NWWD INTO WRN OREGON.  AS UPPER
   LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT OVER THE SIERRA...BUT OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
   INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED FOR TUESDAY. 
     
   ..JEWELL.. 10/15/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 150709
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CDT TUE OCT 15 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE CHANCES OF DRY
   THUNDER OVER THE SWRN U.S...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LOW. 
   OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY FROM OREGON SWD THROUGH CA. 
   ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL SURGE SWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...BRINGING GUSTY NWLY WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.
     
   ...SRN CA/SRN NV/NRN AZ...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY FROM THE SRN SIERRA THROUGH
   SRN NV...NWRN AZ...AND SWRN UT.  SOME STORMS MAY BE DRY.  MOISTURE
   WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH WILL BE OVER SRN CA AT
   00Z.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW
   INSTABILITY...BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS.  RH VALUES AWAY FROM
   STORMS WILL BE NEAR 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE
   SIERRA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S
   AND 80S F.  GIVEN DRY FUEL CONDITIONS...DRY LIGHTNING COULD BE A
   FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ON WED.  
     
   ..JEWELL.. 10/15/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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