Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 090905
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SAT NOV 09 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 091200-101200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE THRU THE
   FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW REGIME BETWEEN A WEAKENING
   MID-UPPER LVL LOW OFF THE WRN CANADIAN COASTLINE AND A
   STRENGTHENING PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE. AN
   UPPER PLAINS DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD...HOWEVER...WILL AID IN
   SHIFTING THE STRONG PACIFIC ONSHORE FLOW MORE NWLY BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT CA AND ADJACENT ERN
   PACIFIC REGION. MUCH OF THE WRN U.S. WILL REMAIN WET AGAIN
   TODAY...WHILE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER/MID MS
   VALLEY REGION NNEWD INTO THE ERN LAKES WILL YIELD THE INCREASING
   LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ANY FIRE WX
   CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. 
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   THE COMBINATION OF THE IMPINGEMENT OF STRENGTHENING WLY MID-LVL
   FLOW AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE REGION WILL YIELD SOME FIRE WX
   CONCERNS ON SATURDAY FROM SWRN KS SWD INTO SWRN TX. WITH THE
   EXPECTED INCREASED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...THE LEE SLOPES/ADJACENT
   AREAS OF SWRN TX/SERN NM ENEWD INTO WRN TX WILL BE THE AREAS OF AT
   LEAST MARGINAL CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
   TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S...RH VALUES TO BE FROM
   THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...AND WSWLY SUSTAINED WINDS
   BETWEEN 15-30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. ELEVATED AREAS OF SWRN
   TX/SRN NM WILL EXPERIENCE EVEN STRONGER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE EXPECTED RH AND WIND REGIMES
   SUGGEST CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS...LACK OF A
   LONG-TERM DROUGHT VIA MOST RECENT DROUGHT MONITOR AND PERIODS OF
   RAINFALL IN EARLY NOVEMBER SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE
   NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES...DOWNSLOPE
   REGIME...AND MAGNITUDE OF WINDS...SOME GRASS FIRE DIFFICULTIES
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
     
   ..NADEN.. 11/09/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 090941
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   500 AM CST SAT NOV 09 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 101200-111200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   RIDGING TO BUILD INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE INTERIOR WEST
   WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL PORTION
   OF THE NATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 11/00Z...A COLD
   FRONT IS PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM EXTREME SERN NM...EWD THRU CNTRL
   TX...NEWD THRU ERN ARK...THE LOWER OH VALLEY...INTO THE ERN LAKES
   YIELDING A SHIFT TO NNWLY WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND AMPLE
   AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AMIDST A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN THIRD OF THE U.S.. SURFACE RIDGING WILL
   TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
   AS WELL AS IN MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES.  
   
   ..NADEN.. 11/09/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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