Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 250904
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   304 AM CST MON NOV 25 2002
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 251200-261200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - PORTIONS OF NRN...CENTRAL...AND
   SRN CA. 
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THIS PERIOD FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
   MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD...AMPLIFYING UPPER
   RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC. IN NWLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE
   FEATURES...TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN
   GREAT BASIN AND THE OTHER ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COASTLINE PER EARLY
   MORNING WV IMAGERY...WILL TRANSLATE SWD. THE WRN GREAT BASIN TROUGH
   IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE LOWER CO
   RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW. A NELY JET OF 60-
   70 KT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE NORTH OF THIS
   FEATURE...ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN NV AND CENTRAL/SRN CA. 
   
   AT THE SURFACE...THE 1038MB ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
   BUILD SWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH. EXTREMELY LARGE PRESSURE RISES
   TODAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTENSE ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR CA WILL INDUCE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW...ESPECIALLY THROUGH/BELOW CANYONS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES IN CA.
   UNIDIRECTIONAL NELY VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL OPTIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MIXING OF VERY STRONG
   NELY WINDS IN 700-500MB LAYER THAT WILL EXIST ON THE NRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WINDY AND DRY
   CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF CA.      
      
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES
   
   STRONG NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ARE
   ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
   COASTAL RANGE AND ADJACENT BASINS OF SRN CA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
   WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE COASTAL MTNS...AND JUST BELOW CANYONS AND
   PASSES IN NEARBY VALLEYS WHERE GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING...WITH RH VALUES
   IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
   EVENING...OR 20-30 PERCENT LOWER THAN MINIMUM VALUES OBSERVED
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   PERIOD...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
   IN POOR RH RECOVERY AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. 
   
   PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL NWS AND FIRE AGENCY PRODUCTS AND STATEMENTS
   FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THIS EXPECTED HIGH WIND
   EVENT. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - CENTRAL AND NRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS / VERY LOW RH VALUES
   
   LOCALLY STRONG NLY TO NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50
   MPH...ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS ARE
   LIKELY NEAR OR BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
   60S TO LOWER 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS...ACCOMPANIED BY DOWNSLOPE
   FLOW...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20
   PERCENT ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT
   ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL REPRESENT A DRAMATIC
   LOWERING OF 50-60 PERCENT COMPARED TO MINIMUM RH VALUES YESTERDAY.
   LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY PERSIST IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THROUGHOUT
   THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH LOCALLY POOR RH RECOVERY OF LESS THAN
   30 PERCENT.  
   
   ..BANACOS.. 11/25/02
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 250902
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   300 AM CST MON NOV 25 2002
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 261200-271200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - SRN CA...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS INTERIOR SRN CA WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN. SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IN
   VICINITY OF BAJA CA DURING THE PERIOD WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG SURFACE WINDS ACROSS SRN CA AS DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS FROM
   THE NORTHEAST. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   NRN CA...HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS WILL BE
   SOMEWHAT LIGHTER TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THOSE
   AREAS.  
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: CONTINUED HIGH WINDS / LOW RH VALUES
   
   STRONG AND GUSTY NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS
   ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT CANYONS/MOUNTAIN PASSES IN
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALLY
   HIGHER GUSTS. MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG OFFSHORE/NELY WINDS WILL
   DEVELOP/REDEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF SRN CA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL
   BASIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW
   80S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES...OF 10-20
   PERCENT AT LOW ELEVATIONS BOTH OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND ACROSS
   COASTAL SECTIONS. 
     
   ..BANACOS.. 11/25/02
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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