Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

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   FNUS21 KWNS 040857
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PAC OCEAN SOUTH OF CA NEWD
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO A
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN
   ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH BY LATE IN THE
   PERIOD BEHIND THE PAC NW SHORTWAVE. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SEWD
   FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 05/12Z. STRONG
   GUSTY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
   OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. 
   
   ...NRN KS/SRN NE...
   STRONG GUSTY WNWLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON SAT
   IMAGERY OVER NRN SD EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 40 KTS
   INTO WRN IA BY 05/00Z. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
   OF THIS FEATURE OVER SRN NE/NRN KS ALONG WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC
   LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF
   STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS FROM
   20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BETWEEN 04/18Z AND 05/00Z. STRONG
   DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE AIDED IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
   MUCH OF THE NRN PLNS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS DESPITE NLY WIND
   COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY COLD...WITH
   AFTERNOON MAX READINGS IN THE 50S. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO 20
   TO 25 DEGREE RANGE...EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 25 TO 30
   PERCENT. DESPITE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA AND DRY
   VEGETATION...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT WILL BE THE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND MARGINALLY
   CRITICAL RH READINGS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN/CENTRAL CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
   CA COAST. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY
   SET UP TO THE NORTH OF THE LAX AREA...FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY
   SWD TO VENTURA COUNTY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
   BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 05/00Z TO 05/12Z PERIOD...WITH POOR RH
   RECOVERY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS IN THESE
   AREAS. INCREASING SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 2 LEADING TO THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/04/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   FNUS22 KWNS 040939
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE
   CENTERED OFF THE CA COAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. BY
   06/12Z...THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
   STRONG NELY OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CA IN
   RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE WEST AND
   CONSEQUENT STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GREAT
   BASIN HIGH CENTER AND TROUGHING JUST OFF THE CA COAST. A
   COMBINATION OF HIGH FIRE DANGERS...POOR RH RECOVERY AND STRONG
   SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AID IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
   MOST OF SRN CA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER EAST...A SERIES OF
   SHORTWAVES TROUGHS WILL MOVE SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
   LAKES AND AID IN MAINTAINING THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
   LIGHT WINDS AND/OR COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREDOMINANT OVER THE
   REMAINDER OF THE NATION. 
    
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
   GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE/ POOR RH RECOVERY / HIGH FIRE DANGER 
   
   CURRENT FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES AT 05/12Z SWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY 06/12Z IS STILL
   SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
   UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE WRN CONUS LIES IN THE TRACK AND EFFECTS
   OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED AT 37N, 160 W AT 04/12Z. IF THIS
   SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE
   OVER THE PAC NW MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...AND CONSEQUENT EFFECTS
   WILL BE TO PROVIDE FOR LESS DIGGING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWD INTO
   THE FOUR CORNERS ON DAY 2. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE
   UNCERTAINTIES...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
   STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THUS...OFFSHORE GRADIENT WINDS
   WILL INCREASE TO CRITICAL LEVELS OVER SRN CA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS. RECENT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL HAVE
   ALLOWED FOR DRYING OF VEGETATION AND HIGH FIRE DANGERS. NELY WINDS
   FROM 20-30 MPH WILL GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
   TERRAIN BY 06/00Z...BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
   COASTAL/VALLEYS OF SRN CA BY 06/12Z. STRENGTH OF WINDS AND
   ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WILL AID IN MAX RH RECOVERY OF ONLY 15
   PERCENT IN HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS VERIFIES...THEN STRONGER
   WINDS/GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AFTER
   06/12Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/04/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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