Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks
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FNUS21 KWNS 050912
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2003
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 051200-061200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING OFF THE PAC COAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
AN UPPER LOW OVER ID AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SWD
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06/12Z. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A 1042 MB CENTER IS
FORECAST OVER SRN ID. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL NELY WINDS WILL AID IN BEGINNING OF A
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT OVER SRN CA DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THE DAY ONE PERIOD.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT / VERY POOR
RH RECOVERY / HIGH FIRE DANGER /
ONGOING OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SUPPORTED BY 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS HAS PROVIDED FOR
SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH EARLY
THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN WITH
DIMINISHMENT OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND DECREASING THERMAL/PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SRN ID AT 05/12Z WILL MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC NW.
A COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA BETWEEN 06/00Z AND 06/12Z.
STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INTENSITY TO
OVER 20 MB BETWEEN TONOPAH AND LOS ANGELES BY 06/06Z. PASSAGE OF
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z
WILL AID IN INCREASED DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND GOOD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER OF 40-60 MPH NELY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 10
KFT. EXPECT NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TO
BEGIN BY 06/06Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION /ANTICIPATED AROUND 1500 FT/. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TURBULENT MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY OVERCOME THE
INVERSION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS 06/12Z. DURATION OF VERY
STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE PRECLUDING AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
..CROSBIE.. 01/05/03
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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FNUS22 KWNS 051051
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
400 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2003
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
VALID 061200-071200
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD INTO NWRN
MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY 2. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER OF NELY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS OVER SRN CA
WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COND/S.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-15 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY
STRONG NELY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THROUGH CANYONS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH
READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS PROVIDING FOR POOR RH RECOVERY.
..CROSBIE.. 01/05/03
SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
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