Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050912
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 051200-061200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH
   THE PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING OFF THE PAC COAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY.
   AN UPPER LOW OVER ID AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE SWD
   INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY 06/12Z. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE
   UPPER LOW...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...A 1042 MB CENTER IS
   FORECAST OVER SRN ID. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...COMBINED
   WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL NELY WINDS WILL AID IN BEGINNING OF A
   STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENT OVER SRN CA DURING THE LATER HALF OF
   THE DAY ONE PERIOD. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH
   GUSTS TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT / VERY POOR
   RH RECOVERY / HIGH FIRE DANGER /
   
   ONGOING OFFSHORE WIND EVENT SUPPORTED BY 10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS HAS PROVIDED FOR
   SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH EARLY
   THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500 FT. THESE WINDS ARE FCST TO WEAKEN WITH
   DIMINISHMENT OF NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND DECREASING THERMAL/PRESSURE
   GRADIENT OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...A
   STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SRN ID AT 05/12Z WILL MOVE SWD IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONG HEIGHT RISES OVER THE PAC NW.
   
   A COMBINATION OF FACTORS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN CA BETWEEN 06/00Z AND 06/12Z.
   STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL OCCUR OVER THE GREAT BASIN
   WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
   AIR PATTERN. THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD INTENSITY TO
   OVER 20 MB BETWEEN TONOPAH AND LOS ANGELES BY 06/06Z. PASSAGE OF
   MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 06/06Z AND 06/12Z
   WILL AID IN INCREASED DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND GOOD MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER OF 40-60 MPH NELY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT AROUND 10
   KFT. EXPECT NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TO
   BEGIN BY 06/06Z OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION /ANTICIPATED AROUND 1500 FT/. IT IS
   POSSIBLE THAT TURBULENT MIXING/MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY OVERCOME THE
   INVERSION IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS 06/12Z. DURATION OF VERY
   STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIMITED...THEREFORE PRECLUDING AN EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK.
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/05/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051051
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SUN JAN 05 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD INTO NWRN
   MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY 2. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
   COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER OF NELY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS OVER SRN CA
   WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COND/S.  
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  STRONG NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
   TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM 10-15 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY
   
   STRONG NELY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
   STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL WINDS COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   NELY WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND THROUGH CANYONS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR RECORD HIGH
   TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RH
   READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS PROVIDING FOR POOR RH RECOVERY. 
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/05/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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