ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 060839 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 400 AM CST MON JAN 06 2003 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS VALID 061200-071200 ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN CA... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...PROVIDING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. OVER THE WEST...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SWWD INTO NWRN MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY ONE...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDING OVER THE PAC NW BUILDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SFC TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SWRN CA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY /EXTREME FIRE DANGER A VERY STRONG OFFSHORE /SANTA ANA/ WIND EVENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER SWRN CA. EARLY MORNING RAWS/MESOWEST OBS INDICATED MANY SITES HAD SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY OVER SERN CA/WRN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS SWRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS/MTNS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. ALONG WITH A -10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DAG AND LAX...VERY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD START TO AFFECT ALL OF THE MTNS AND VALLEYS IN THE SAN DIEGO AREA BY 06/12Z. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHEN THE STRONGEST DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION/MOMENTUM TRANSFER BEGINS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND BELOW PASSES/CANYONS AS NOCTURNAL EFFECTS AID IN STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS. ...REMAINDER OF SRN CA AND SRN AZ... EXPECT STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE DESERTS OF SRN CA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06/12Z AND 06/18Z. FARTHER EAST OVER SWRN AZ...STRONG ELY MID LEVEL WINDS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MINIMUM RH READINGS IN BOTH OF THESE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE...ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ...CENTRAL CA... STRONG ELY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /-10 MB/ BETWEEN RNO AND SFO THROUGH 07/00Z. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 07/00Z....BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT AND POOR RH RECOVERY POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COND/S WILL BE MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS OVER THE REGION. ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/03 SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE NNNN
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 061021 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 400 AM CST MON JAN 06 2003 DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS VALID 071200-081200 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN CA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WILL ONLY CHANGE SLIGHTLY FROM DAY ONE TO DAY TWO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSLOPE WSWLY WINDS WILL AID IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/PLNS STATES. OVER THE WEST...THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN BAJA CA AT 07/12Z IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO FAR SRN CA BY 08/12Z. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER SRN CA...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER THAN THOSE FOUND OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN CA... PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH / MIN RH/S AROUND 15 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SRN GREAT BASIN AND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FCST TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. THUS...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG ESELY MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KTS/ ARE FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER FAR SWRN CA /SAN DIEGO AREA/...BUT FARTHER NORTH FROM LA COUNTY NWWD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...EXPECT MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/03 SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE NNNN