Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic 

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 060839
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST MON JAN 06 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 061200-071200
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN CA...
    
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...PROVIDING FOR SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. OVER THE
   WEST...A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SWWD INTO
   NWRN MEXICO BY THE END OF DAY ONE...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDING OVER
   THE PAC NW BUILDS INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
   BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SFC TROUGH OFF THE
   CA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND EVENT THROUGH THE
   PERIOD. 
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SWRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS
   OVER 60 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY 
   /EXTREME FIRE DANGER 
   
   A VERY STRONG OFFSHORE /SANTA ANA/ WIND EVENT WAS UNDERWAY OVER
   SWRN CA. EARLY MORNING RAWS/MESOWEST OBS INDICATED MANY SITES HAD
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
   STRONG DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY OVER SERN
   CA/WRN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD WITH THE UPPER LOW TOWARDS
   SWRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS/MTNS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
   HOURS. ALONG WITH A -10 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DAG AND
   LAX...VERY STRONG NELY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE REGION
   THROUGH THE DAY. OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD START TO AFFECT ALL OF THE
   MTNS AND VALLEYS IN THE SAN DIEGO AREA BY 06/12Z. EXPECT THE
   STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS...WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
   HOURS...WHEN THE STRONGEST DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION/MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER BEGINS TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 30-40
   MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND BELOW
   PASSES/CANYONS AS NOCTURNAL EFFECTS AID IN STRENGTHENING THE
   PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS. 
   
   ...REMAINDER OF SRN CA AND SRN AZ...
   EXPECT STRONG NLY WINDS OVER THE DESERTS OF SRN CA TO CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
   25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
   BETWEEN 06/12Z AND 06/18Z. FARTHER EAST OVER SWRN AZ...STRONG ELY
   MID LEVEL WINDS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
   TO MID LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
   WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   MINIMUM RH READINGS IN BOTH OF THESE AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
   15-25 PERCENT RANGE...ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. 
   
   ...CENTRAL CA...
   STRONG ELY WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
   STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT /-10 MB/ BETWEEN RNO AND SFO THROUGH
   07/00Z. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 07/00Z....BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MIN
   RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT AND POOR RH RECOVERY POSSIBLE
   OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   COND/S
   WILL BE MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS OVER THE REGION. 
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic 

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061021
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST MON JAN 06 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 071200-081200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN CA...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION WILL ONLY CHANGE SLIGHTLY FROM
   DAY ONE TO DAY TWO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SWD FROM THE NRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD FROM NRN/CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSLOPE
   WSWLY WINDS WILL AID IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
   THE MIDWEST/PLNS STATES. OVER THE WEST...THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN
   BAJA CA AT 07/12Z IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO FAR SRN CA BY
   08/12Z. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER SRN CA...BUT
   THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOWER THAN THOSE FOUND OVER THE AREA
   DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SWRN CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   50 MPH / MIN RH/S AROUND 15 PERCENT / POOR RH RECOVERY 
   
   STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...DUE TO PRESENCE OF STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SRN
   GREAT BASIN AND COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FCST TO WEAKEN
   DURING THE DAY...DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW
   OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. THUS...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE
   DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
   ESELY MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KTS/ ARE FCST TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
   ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
   WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER
   FAR SWRN CA /SAN DIEGO AREA/...BUT FARTHER NORTH FROM LA COUNTY
   NWWD TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY...EXPECT MODERATELY STRONG WINDS TO
   CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THROUGH PASSES AND
   CANYONS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
   WILL BE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/06/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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