Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 070940
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 071200-081200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN CA..
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLNS TODAY AS THE
   UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM WRN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 50S AND 60S / 20-30 DEG ABOVE NORMAL / ALONG WITH LOW/MID
   LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 20 TO 25
   PERCENT. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
   OVER THIS REGION. FARTHER WEST...THE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT OVER SWRN
   CA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF
   WCENTRAL CA. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT IN
   SWRN/WCENTRAL CA...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
   TO 60 MPH / MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT / EXTREME FIRE
   DANGER / POOR RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT /
   
   ENELY SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...AS SURFACE PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS RELAX...AND LOW TO
   MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASE WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LOW OFF
   THE FAR SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST. EARLY MORNING RAWS/MESOWEST OBS
   INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
   OVER MANY LOCATIONS IN FOOTHILLS/MTNS OF SWRN CA. THE STRONGEST
   PRESSURE GRADIENT /-10 MB BETWEEN LAX AND LAS/ AND MID LEVEL WINDS
   WILL BE PRESENT BETWEEN 07/12Z AND 07/18Z. SUSTAINED WINDS DURING
   THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
   60 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWER ELEVATIONS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND
   OF THE FOOTHILLS/CANYONS SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO 25
   MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD. 
   
   AFTER 07/18Z...EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER ALL THE
   REGION AS MID LEVEL WINDS SUBSIDE AND THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS
   CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH
   WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 07/18Z AND
   08/12Z...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LOS ANGELES AREA
   NWWD INTO SANTA BARBARA/SAN LOUIS OBISPO COUNTIES...AS THE UPPER
   LOW GRADUALLY MOVES NWD TO OFF THE FAR SRN CA COAST. DESPITE A
   SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS OVER THE AREA TODAY COMPARED TO 24
   HOURS AGO STRONG MIXING WILL PROVIDE FOR MINIMUM RH READINGS AROUND
   15 PERCENT DURING THE DAY AND POOR RH RECOVERY IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION /AROUND 1500 FT/ OVERNIGHT. 
    
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/07/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071000
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 081200-091200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL PLNS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SWD OUT OF
   SRN CANADA. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD IS FCST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EWD INTO NM BY 09/12Z. ONSHORE FLOW
   WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER MUCH OF
   CA...PROVIDING FOR A 5-10 DEG TEMPERATURE FALL OVER MUCH OF THE
   LOWER ELEVATIONS. 
   
   ...SWRN/WCENTRAL CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON DAY 2. THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED
   WINDS/GUSTS ARE FCST TO OCCUR OVER THE WCENTRAL COASTAL MTNS FROM
   THE SANTA BARBARA AREA NWD TO THE SFO BAY AREA. SUSTAINED WINDS
   FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
   08/17Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING ONSHORE OVER THE AREA BY
   09/00Z. 
   
   ...ERN NM/WRN TX...
   INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING SWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL AID IN SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH TO DEVELOP OVER
   THE REGION BETWEEN 08/18Z AND 09/00Z. DOWNSLOPE SUBSIDENCE WILL AID
   IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO 70S FROM ERN NM EWD INTO
   WRN TX. DESPITE FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS OVER THE
   AREA..LACK OF A LONG TERM DROUGHT AND LOW FIRE DANGERS WILL
   MITIGATE THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.  
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 01/07/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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