Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010933
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   332 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 011200-021200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN
   PLAINS STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DEAMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A
   STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING CA THIS MORNING. IN ADVANCE OF
   THIS FEATURE...STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES AND THE FRONT RANGE WILL FAVOR LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE SLY TO
   SWLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURE WITH THIS SYSTEM.   
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM...NWRN TX AND TX
   PANHANDLE...OK...SRN KS
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / LOW RH VALUES /
   MODERATE WINDS
   
   A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS STATES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
   LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON. THESE READINGS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-25F ABOVE EARLY
   FEBRUARY AVERAGE HIGHS AND 10-15F WARMER THAN TEMPERATURES OBSERVED
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE SLY TO SWLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL
   DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
   HOURS...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30
   PERCENT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...ABUNDANT
   DEAD GRASSES AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE JANUARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
   MOST OF THE REGION SUGGEST AN ENHANCED WILDFIRE THREAT GIVEN
   UNSEASONABLY WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. 
     
   ...SWRN STATES...
   UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WITH VALLEY/BASIN HIGHS ACROSS AZ/INTERIOR SRN CA AGAIN
   APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SWLY WINDS OF 15-
   20 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AZ AND SRN CA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
   IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
   TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA ACROSS
   THE REGION. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/01/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010930
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   330 AM CST SAT FEB 01 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 021200-031200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S. AND SRN
   PLAINS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION DURING THE
   DAY 2 PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS AZ/NM DURING THE PERIOD. EAST OF THE
   ROCKIES...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS KS DURING THE
   DAY AND INTO OK/TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
   PREVAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - SERN AZ...SRN AND ERN
   NM...OK...WRN/NRN TX AND TX PANHANDLE
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES / LOW RH VALUES /
   WINDY 
   
   SWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
   THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIDESPREAD AREA
   OF LOW RH VALUES...BETWEEN 15-30 PERCENT...WILL ENCOMPASS THE SRN
   PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL/SRN NM AND
   CENTRAL/SRN AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
   NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER...TO THE
   MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. AN
   APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NLY ACROSS OK/TX
   PANHANDLE FROM N-S DURING THE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD
   BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A RAPID RH RECOVERY. 
     
   ...SRN CA... 
   THE 01/00Z GFS IS PROJECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
   NELY WINDS ACROSS COASTAL SRN CA AND THE ADJACENT MTNS EARLY SUNDAY
   MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NWRN
   GREAT BASIN. NELY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY TO 45 MPH
   ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MTN PASSES. EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF WIND
   THREAT WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA AT THIS TIME. 
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/01/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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