Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030855
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   255 AM CST MON FEB 03 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 031200-041200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
   INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 04/00Z. AN
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE TX COAST AND LOWER MS
   RIVER VALLEY AREA BY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
   EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW SEWD INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN.  
   
   ...S-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX...
   SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NWLY/NLY AT 15-25 MPH WITH DRY COLD
   FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION REGIME...VERY DRY
   POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL ALLOW MINIMUM RH VALUES TO FALL TO
   BETWEEN 15-25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RECOVERING RAPIDLY
   AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SWD INTO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATE
   WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...
   SHORT DURATION OF THESE CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
   WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...BASIN AND COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN IS RESULTING
   IN A LOCALLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SRN CA EARLY THIS
   MORNING. ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG OFFSHORE /NELY/ WINDS THROUGH
   CANYONS AND MTN PASSES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   MORNING HOURS...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ASSOCIATED EXTREMELY
   LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO 10 PERCENT OWING TO DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF
   WINDS. DIURNAL HEATING WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN WIND SPEEDS...WITH
   WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING LIGHT /LESS THAN 15 MPH/ BY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  
    
   ..BANACOS.. 02/03/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030852
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   250 AM CST MON FEB 03 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AN INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED OVER
   THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION AT 04/12Z WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ST.
   LAWRENCE VALLEY. LOW RH VALUES /BELOW 30 PERCENT/ WILL BE CONFINED
   TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SWRN CONUS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
   LOCALLY STRONG WINDS IN SRN CA...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN
   THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION.  
   
   ...BASINS AND COASTAL MTNS OF SRN CA...
   PERSISTENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT BASIN AND NOCTURNAL
   COOLING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL ACT TO REESTABLISH
   MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE WIND REGIME ACROSS SRN CA.
   LOCALIZED NELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND LOW RH VALUES OF 15-30
   PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MTN PASSES/CANYONS
   WHEN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE MOST INTENSE. LIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERITY OF WINDS AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE
   IN WIND SPEED BY AFTERNOON SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. REDEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY MODERATE/STRONG
   OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS DIURNAL
   TRENDS IN SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.   
   
   ..BANACOS.. 02/03/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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