Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 080845
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SAT FEB 08 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 081200-091200
     
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM OFF THE SRN CA COAST AT THE
   START OF THE PERIOD TO THE SRN PLNS BY 09/12Z. SCT LIGHT-MODERATE
   PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM FROM SRN CA EWD TO TX.
   MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OUT OF SRN CANADA INTO THE
   NCENTRAL/NERN CONUS AND AID IN RE-AMPLIFYING A BROAD TROUGH OVER
   ERN NORTH AMERICA AND SUSTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THIS
   REGION.
   
   ...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
   LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVER CENTRAL CA WILL WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS
   SHORTWAVE OFF SRN CA COAST MOVES QUICKLY EWD. HOWEVER...A
   REDEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS LIKELY OVER NRN CA BETWEEN
   08/18Z AND 09/00Z BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
   MOVING SWD FROM ORE. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN
   STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR GOOD
   MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DESPITE MIN RH
   READINGS FROM 20-25 PERCENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HIGH FIRE
   DANGERS IN THE TERRAIN SURROUNDING AND JUST NORTH OF THE SFO BAY
   AREA...MAX SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST FROM 15-20 MPH FOR ONLY A FEW
   HOUR DURATION WILL LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OFFSHORE
   WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /LESS THAN 15 MPH / OVERNIGHT DUE
   TO A LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE/THERMAL GRADIENTS OVER THE REGION.
       
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/08/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 080925
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SAT FEB 08 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 091200-101200
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
   THE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS....WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND
   ALONG THE PAC COAST. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START
   OF WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   EAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SWD THROUGH SRN CA/GREAT
   BASIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS FEATURE...A COMBINATION OF
   LOW-MID LEVEL ELY WINDS AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN REDEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPE
   WINDS ACROSS SRN CA. 
   
   ...SRN CA...
   OFFSHORE WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP ABOVE 2500 FT AFTER
   09/18Z WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
   SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT ABOVE NOCTURNAL INVERSION /1500 FT/ WHEN
   NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE. DESPITE
   HIGH FIRE DANGERS AND POOR RH RECOVERY...MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. 
   
   ...SERN NM/SWRN TX...
   BEHIND DEPARTING SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
   AID IN RAPID WARM UP FROM DAY 1 TEMPERATURES. MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S
   WITH MIN RH/S AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. ALTHOUGH
   SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE 09/18Z TO
   10/00Z TIME FRAME WHEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THE STEEPEST...SCT
   PRECIPITATION DURING DAY 1 SHOULD LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/08/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
   NNNN
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home