Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030851
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST MON MAR 03 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 031200-041200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   COOL AND/OR MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MOST AREAS AS PATTERN
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC AIR MASSES OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF
   THE COUNTRY.  RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO
   SRN CA...AZ...NM AND SW TX.
     
   ...E-CENTRAL NM...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NM DURING THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS.  WLY WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION WILL BRING DRY AIR AND STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE
   BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  RH
   LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND VALUES IN THE TEENS
   ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S
   AND 60S F.  RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW
   FOR GOOD RH RECOVERY BY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S F.  A
   STABLE LAYER ALOFT AND SHALLOW MIXING LAYER WILL HELP MITIGATE THE
   THREAT TODAY.  
    
   ..JEWELL.. 03/03/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030852
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST MON MAR 03 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 041200-051200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - ERN NM AND WRN TX...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A LARGE TROUGH WILL COVER MUCH OF THE NATION WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
   PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  LOW
   PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE OVER NW TX...AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN CO THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE ALONG
   THE RED RIVER BY 00Z.  VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER ERN NM
   AND W TX DUE TO A WLY JET ALOFT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENTS OVER ERN NM.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE
   TO THE SRN CA COASTAL AREAS.
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA # 1 - ERN NM AND WRN TX...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  VERY HIGH WINDS / LOW RH / LACK OF RECENT RAIN
   
   A NRN TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SWD OVER THE ROCKIES...PHASING WITH THE
   SRN STREAM JET COMING OUT OF NRN MEXICO.  THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
   WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER OK AT 12Z TO EXPAND WWD
   INTO ERN NM BY AFTERNOON.  THE RAPID DROP IN PRESSURES OVER ERN NM
   AND W TX WILL CAUSE HIGH WINDS...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL BE
   LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA.  HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
   MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
   AREAS OF SERN NM AND SW TX...WITHIN STRONG WIND AXIS.  TEMPERATURES
   ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S F OVER E CENTRAL NM AND
   THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SERN NM AND SW
   TX.  RESULTANT RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER NERN
   AND E CENTRAL NM TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS OVER SERN NM AND SWRN
   TX.  IN ADDITION TO WIND AND RH...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MIXING LAYER
   WILL EXIST...AVERAGING BETWEEN 8000 AND 10000 FEET AGL AND
   MAXIMIZING LOWER ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND TURBULENCE.  A COLD
   FRONT WILL BE MOVING SWD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...DEFINING THE
   NRN EDGE OF THE CRITICAL AREA.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING EXTENDING FROM NERN NM
   THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AS NIGHTTIME WLY WINDS OF 15-25
   MPH CONTINUE OVER THE CRITICAL AREA WITH GOOD RH RECOVERY N AND
   POOR RECOVERY SOUTH.  
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/03/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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