Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 140919
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 141200-151200
     
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES
   DURING DAY ONE PROVIDING FOR SCT AREAS OF LIGHT-MOD PRECIPITATION
   ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NV/UT
   NWD INTO SWRN MT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD
   OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE ROCKIES EWD INTO THE PLNS. FARTHER
   EAST...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY
   EWD PROVIDING FOR SCT PRECIPITATION. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN
   LESS THAN 20 MPH OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
   THE PAC NW/NRN CA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM
   APPROACHES THE COAST BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOD-HVY
   PRECIPITATION. 
   
   ...NERN NV/WRN UT/SRN UT...
   RECENT MODEL FCSTS AGREE WITH EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT
   TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. ONE
   TROUGH...THE WEAKER OF THE TWO...WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CA NEWD
   INTO WRN UT BY 14/18Z. THE SECOND TROUGH...STRONGER OF THE
   TWO...WILL MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL NV BY 14/18Z. MODIFYING THE 14/00Z
   LKN SOUNDING FOR EXPECTED INCREASING VERTICAL IN THE 700-500 MB
   LAYER AND CONSEQUENT MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER WILL AID IN
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /LI 0 TO -1 DEC C/ TO AID IN ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NV INTO SERN ID/WRN UT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DEGREE OF DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR INITIAL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE A DRY
   LIGHTNING THREAT. HOWEVER...RECENT MARGINAL FIRE DANGERS OVER THE
   AREA AND LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT. AFTERNOON SWLY WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED FROM
   15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE OVER ERN NV WITH UPPER
   LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 
    
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   SWLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS FROM WRN TX/ERN NM NEWD INTO WRN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S AND 70S OVER THE KS/NEB
   AND WRN IA AND IN THE 70S TO MID 80S OVER WRN OK/TX/ERN NM.
   COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS/20S OVER THE HIGH PLNS TO THE
   30S/MID 40S OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL GIVE MINIMUM RH READINGS
   FROM 15 TO 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/14/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 140920
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST FRI MAR 14 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 151200-161200
   
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN CONUS BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM CA/NV/AZ/UT AND ID
   WILL RECEIVE PRECIPITATION FROM LIGHT AMTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
   THE INTERIOR WEST AND MOD-HVY AMTS ANTICIPATED OVER COASTAL CA AND
   IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE REGION.  INCREASING MID LEVEL SWLY
   FLOW WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
   CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...UPPER LEVEL
   RIDGING WILL BUILD EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SYSTEM OVER THE
   WEST...PROVIDING FOR WARMING CONDITIONS. A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE
   SERN STATES IS FCST TO GRADUALLY LIFT EWD AND AID IN SCATTERED
   PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC.
   
   ...ERN AZ/NM AND FAR WRN TX...
   THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER SRN NV/AZ AND SRN UT
   DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ERN AZ...MOST OF
   THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
   2 PERIOD LIMITING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
   WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ERN AZ...ESPECIALLY
   BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARRIVES BY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   FARTHER EAST OVER NM/FAR WRN TX...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15 TO
   20 MPH TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON BEHIND A DRYLINE LOCATED OVER FAR
   WRN TX. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM RH READINGS
   FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. 
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/14/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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