Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 160943
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 161200-171200
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A STRONG TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD WHILE INTENSIFYING
   AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE WEST. MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE WEST WILL
   SEE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALONG THE
   ERN/SERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
   RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/WINDS. LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL
   PROVIDE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS.  
    
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...THE WRN
   OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR WRN TX AND PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   40 MPH IN HIGHER TERRAIN / MIN RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT / 
   
   APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
   AID IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM SRN NM NEWD INTO SWRN
   KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   DAY...MOST NOTABLY OVER SRN NM AND FAR WRN TX. BY 17/00Z...10000 FT
   WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN
   TX. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OVER THIS AREA AND
   STRONG MIXING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
   GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
   20 TO 30 MPH...AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE
   MTNS. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE EWD AND REACH A POSITION FROM TCC TO ELP BY 17/06Z.
   BEHIND THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A WLY DIRECTION...AND RH
   RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TO BE GOOD. ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
   WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SCENTRAL
   NM...ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. DESPITE INCREASING MID/HIGH
   CLOUD COVER...MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ARE
   EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
   
   FARTHER NORTH/EAST THE LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM AN
   STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER NERN CO SSEWD THROUGH THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND INTO SWRN TX BY AFTERNOON. 8-10 MB SFC PRESSURE FALLS
   AND SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THIS LEE TROUGH OVER
   THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN INCREASING SWLY SFC WINDS
   BEHIND THE LEE TROUGH FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM
   20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP BY AROUND 16/18Z
   AND LAST UNTIL 17/00Z. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE AREA
   EARLY IN THE DAY WHICH WILL INHIBIT FULL LOW LEVEL MIXING/WARMING
   AND STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S COMBINED WITH
   MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDE FOR CRITICALLY LOW RH
   READINGS FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
   AFTER 17/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
     
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 160944
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 171200-181200
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   A BROAD UPPER LOW/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS WILL DIG SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
   INTENSIFYING. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
   ON THE NRN PORTIONS OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND
   NRN/CENTRAL PLNS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
   SRN PLAINS. BEHIND A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KS INTO WRN
   TX...LOW RH READINGS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC WINDS WILL
   PROVIDE FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS. 
     
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN NM AND MUCH OF WRN TX -
   INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
   40 MPH / MIN RH READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT 
   
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND MOVES SEWD...EXPECT THE SFC LOW
   TO DO THE SAME AND MOVE FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN KS BY 18/00Z. A SFC
   DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
   EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWD INTO CENTRAL TX. WEST OF THE DRYLINE
   ...CONTINUED MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID IN MAINTAINING STEEP
   LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR FAVORABLE DEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
   MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WSWLY SFC WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH
   WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OVER THE GUADALUPE MTNS BY 17/18Z. DOWNSLOPE
   COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELDS WILL AID IN MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL
   COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
   70S AND LOWER 80S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 15-25 RANGE...
   EXPECT MINIMUM RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT. SUSTAINED WINDS
   SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 MPH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS AFTER
   18/00Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...BUT POOR RH RECOVERY IS
   EXPECTED AREAWIDE BEHIND THE DRYLINE. FARTHER SOUTH...MOD WINDS/LOW
   RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BIG BEND REGION/DAVIS MTNS.
   HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONCERNS IN THIS AREA.
    
   ..CROSBIE.. 03/16/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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