Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 020919
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST WED APR 02 2003
     
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
   VALID 021200-031200
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (NERN AZ/SERN UT/WRN
   CO)...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR - (AZ/UT/CO/NM/KS/MO/OK/TX)...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG TROUGH AXIS LOCATED IN THE PAC
   NW IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ENEWD AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
   AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC COAST EWD INTO THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN/THE WASATCH MTNS AND THE NRN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF THE
   PRECIPITATION SHIELD AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY AIR
   IS EXPECTED TO EXIST FROM THE SWRN STATES ENEWD THRU THE SRN
   ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 
     
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - (NERN AZ/SERN UT/WRN
   CO)...
     
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM
   TEMPERATURES / EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT / VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
   FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS
   
   WITH MID-LVL SPEED MAX OVERHEAD DUE TO THE ENEWD TRANSLATION OF THE
   MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH AXIS THIS AREA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY STRONG
   BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
   STRONG WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM THE 700-500MB LAYER GIVEN EXTREME
   LAPSE RATES TO YIELD SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS FROM 35-45 MPH WITH
   FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND
   10-15 PERCENT IN AN AREA AMIDST AN EXTREME LONG TERM DROUGHT.
   ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ONLY FROM THE LOW 60S INTO
   THE LOW 70S...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW-LVL TROUGH AXIS/DRY
   COLD FRONT...GIVEN THE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE
   RATINGS AND EXPECTED VERY STRONG SWLY WIND REGIME EXTREME FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. 
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 2 - (AZ/UT/CO/NM/KS/MO/OK/TX)...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG SWLY WINDS / LOW RH VALUES / WARM TO HOT
   TEMPERATURES / HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS OR DRY
   10/100 HOUR FUEL READINGS
   
   AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG SUSTAINED WSWLY TO SLY SURFACE WINDS IS
   EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS FROM WCNTRL AZ EWD INTO THE MISSOURI
   OZARKS. SUSTAINED SWLY TO WSWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 20-35 MPH WILL
   OCCUR FROM WCNTRL AZ EWD THRU THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
   PLAINS OF WRN TX/WRN OK AND ERN PLAINS OF CO. MINIMUM RH VALUES
   WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS WITH HIGH
   TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOW 60S IN WCNTRL AZ/NWRN CO TO THE MID-UPPER
   80S IN ERN CO AND WRN TX. FURTHER EAST...EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS
   TO BE MORE SSWLY FROM NCNTRL TX/CNTRL OK EWD INTO THE MISSOURI
   OZARKS WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT AND HIGHS FROM
   THE UPPER 70S INTO THE MID 80S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE AREAS ARE
   NOT IN A LONG TERM DROUGHT...RECENT FIRE DANGER ADJECTIVE RATINGS
   AND 10/100 FUEL VALUES SUGGEST THAT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA IS
   WARRANTED. GOOD RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS WITH
   THE EXCEPTION OF SERN CO...SWRN KS...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
     
   ..NADEN.. 04/02/03
     
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 021006
   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   400 AM CST WED APR 02 2003
     
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWI98 KWNS
   VALID 031200-041200
     
   ...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...
     
   ...SYNOPSIS... 
   LARGE-SCALE GENERAL WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE DURING
   THIS PERIOD AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRANSLATES NEWD INTO
   THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
   MOVE INTO CNTRL CA BETWEEN 04/00-12Z. THE NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL AID IN THE INTENSIFICATION OF A SFC CYCLONE FROM THE
   NCNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN LAKES BY AROUND 04/00Z WITH A COLD FRONT
   FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS INTO CNTRL MT. FURTHER SOUTH...A SURFACE
   DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE
   PERIOD WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS RELEGATED TO PARTS OF THE SWRN
   STATES AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WRN TX. 
   
   ...ERN AZ/NM/WRN TX...
   ALTHOUGH THE NEWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRONG MID-LVL TROUGH INTO THE
   NCNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING TREND IN THE
   OVERALL WIND REGIME...MUCH OF ERN AZ/NM/AND WRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO
   EXPERIENCE WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE
   WINDS BETWEEN 15-30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND MINIMUM RH
   VALUES FROM 10-20 PERCENT DURING THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SURFACE HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON
   WEDNESDAY / FROM 60-70 IN ERN AZ AND NRN NM TO THE UPPER 70S AND
   LOWER 80S IN ERN NM AND WRN TX/.  
   
   ..NADEN.. 04/02/03
      
   SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE
     
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